re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

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The eye is clearing out by the second. I would be surprised if they don't upgrade this to 160 mph.

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Recon has spent the last half hour in the eye. We'll see what they do at 9am update I guess.

7am and 8am have stayed at 937mb and 155 mph.

I don't disagree with any of that, but it's more about having more major hurricanes, not just more storms overall. granted, this is also part on our prediction methods, but major hurricanes have exceeded probability for decades.

LINK

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The main focus of this work is the identification of global changes in TC intensity (Figs. 1 and 2). When the global data are parsed into regional subsets, there is an expectation for changes in signal-to-noise ratios and greater sensitivity to known regional modes of variability (e.g., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation [IPO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], or Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD]). Nonetheless, it is generally informative to identify changes and trends within individual ocean basins, and results of the regional analyses are shown in Table 1 and Fig. 3. The greatest changes are found in the North Atlantic, where the probability of major hurricane exceedance increases by 49% per decade, significant at greater than the 99% confidence level (Table 1). Consistent with this, an increasing trend is found in the triad time series of the proportion of major hurricane intensities (Fig. 3) that represents an increase of 42% per decade, significant with 98% confidence (Table 1).

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It’s odd the storm is maybe 40 miles offshore yet the winds on the coast where the talking heads are seem mild.

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That's how hurricanes are structured. People have been conditioned to think hurricane force winds extend the entire duration of the structure. In reality they're in a narrow area around the core.

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If someone can render/post animated loop = thanks

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Lightning in the eye wall.

Jeff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CimB6apaN8

Jeff haters suck at life.

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Hurricane Audrey in June of 1957 caught many off guard. Killed 400 people in Cameron and Calcasieu Parish and 16 people in SE TX

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Grandfather said the eye went over our old house. A Cat 3 in June is fricking crazy.

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Dude is a clown, he didn’t even have enough sense to check all sides of the garage…and is his partner in the Jeep also named Jeff? Annoying AF

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"250 mph winds right on top of me!!!" 5,000 feet up...

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That's how hurricanes are structured. People have been conditioned to think hurricane force winds extend the entire duration of the structure. In reality they're in a narrow area around the core.

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Michael seems like it was a good teaching lesson for many on this.

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Can we save the climate change debate for another thread, please?

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we aren't debating climate change, we're talking about hurricanes, but yes, I agree, it's for another thread.