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Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:18 pm to slackster
that looks like an old map from when the eye was heading straight into Tampa Bay but I could be wrong
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:20 pm to FLBooGoTigs1
quote:
that looks like an old map from when the eye was heading straight into Tampa Bay but I could be wrong
It’s from the GFS that just wrapped up running around 10:30PM
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:23 pm to FLBooGoTigs1
It's got the right timestamp.
Also, the HRRR isn't blasting the biblical rainfall totals. Still in the 20" range but notably under the GFS.
Also, the HRRR isn't blasting the biblical rainfall totals. Still in the 20" range but notably under the GFS.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:23 pm to slackster
I thought Tampa was safe?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:25 pm to Palmetto98
quote:
I thought Tampa was safe?
Tampa will avoid the really bad storm surge, however, Tampa will still have rough weather, including extreme rainfall totals.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 11:25 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:25 pm to Palmetto98
They're gonna get whalloped by the fresh water flooding and probably some still pretty nasty winds.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:26 pm to Duke
This is a cool quick video at the link:
Mike Scantlin
@theScantman
·
2m
This certainly looks to be a 150+mph #mesovortex or mini-swirl in the eyewall of #HurricaneIan over the Gulf 85. Comma-shaped reverse hook with strong tight velocity gradient. Strong #tornado embedded in the #hurricane #eyewall
Twit LINK
Mike Scantlin
@theScantman
·
2m
This certainly looks to be a 150+mph #mesovortex or mini-swirl in the eyewall of #HurricaneIan over the Gulf 85. Comma-shaped reverse hook with strong tight velocity gradient. Strong #tornado embedded in the #hurricane #eyewall
Twit LINK
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:27 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Fingers crossed for y'all man
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:27 pm to Duke
quote:
Also, the HRRR isn't blasting the biblical rainfall totals.
It hasn't really ever bought into the really high totals.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:27 pm to slackster
Eggplant schlong!
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:27 pm to Palmetto98
getting better and better for Tampa for the storm surge as the eye has moved further South.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:34 pm to Duke
NAM isn’t going with the same high end 30”+ cumulative totals, but still has some troublesome 12”+ totals in 6 hour intervals.
It’s also showing some 4”+ 1 hour totals in some early morning Thursday snapshots.
Obviously high end rainfall totals are possible.
It’s also showing some 4”+ 1 hour totals in some early morning Thursday snapshots.
Obviously high end rainfall totals are possible.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:37 pm to slackster
NAM is still coming in a little hot.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:38 pm to rds dc
this eyewall replacement cycle is terrifying
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:41 pm to slackster
Probably just had a tornado cross 75 West of Fort Lauderdale.
It is on the ground again.
It is on the ground again.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 11:42 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:44 pm to Duke
quote:
NAM is still coming in a little hot.
, yeah, not really giving it any credence on the strength, just trying to get some rainfall ranges from a few of the models. Seems like the biggest concerns for rainfall, from really any of the models, will be the big outside band that comes in off the Atlantic side as the storm approaches landfall, and the areas to the the immediate N and NW of the storm center.
That makes sense to me logically as areas to the immediate SE and E or the eye will be relatively drier due to the intrusion of drier air.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:46 pm to LegendInMyMind
Looks like it's close to finishing the eyewall replacement cycle. Tons of lightning in the hot towers wrapping around the eye.
A little notch of dry air on the western side is seen on mid-level water vapor and IR.
Competing forces
A little notch of dry air on the western side is seen on mid-level water vapor and IR.
Competing forces
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:46 pm to slackster
Weird move.
Maybe going to cut across that roaring convective burst on the west side.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:47 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Probably just had a tornado cross 75 West of Fort Lauderdale. It is on the ground again.
Some pretty intense supercells in that band. I don’t recall seeing much lightning in outer bands like that very often.
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