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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:02 pm to
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14065 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:02 pm to
quote:

Ian is trying to test 100 years of Tampa safety


forcefield must be under maintenance
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
13607 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:03 pm to
Pretty big shift East
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13041 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:03 pm to
Forecast track shifted closer to FL west coast (showing major just off St. Petersburg.

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

Ian is trying to test 100 years of Tampa safety


Let's just hope that forcefield is real.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
29949 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:11 pm to
Havana is going to be in that nasty NE quadrant in a day or two. Yeesh.
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
8556 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:12 pm to
This Fall Cool Front just in time here in the Gulf South.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66387 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:19 pm to
Such an efficient process when you think about the amount of energy spread out earlier today. How it has consolidated all of it. It is always fascinating to watch a storm grow. The impacts are never good. Learning from it what we can and just standing in awe of Nature is all we can do.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5059 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:35 pm to
This is starting to look like a pretty good job by NHC with its initial forecast. The initial Friday morning track put the fort meyers - Tampa on notice and 60 hours later especially Tampa seems very much in play for a bad week.

Folks in Florida are at least getting plenty of forewarning with this one.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66387 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

Folks in Florida are at least getting plenty of forewarning with this one.

Yep. I'm glad to see some consistency across models develop today. Another day with no real clarity was going to put every EMA office from the panhandle to Fort Myers in a bind.
Posted by Dexterous404
Florida
Member since Sep 2022
73 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:44 pm to
I live in Sarasota. Very close to Ringling Museum, close to the water. Native Floridian here, born in Miami, been through this many, many times in my life. The worst I’ve ever been through was Hugo in Charleston when I was at MUSC. I’m pretty used to this after a lifetime of it, but, dang if this one doesn’t have me shaken up-especially after that last update. I’ve lurked here for a while. I’ve always been so impressed by the kindness when someone has a prayer request that I wanted to join and say hello. I hope if I ever need prayer that I can ask here. Thanks for this thread. It really has helped me in this stressful time.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66387 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:45 pm to
quote:

Dexterous404

Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
19857 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:46 pm to
quote:

Folks in Florida are at least getting plenty of forewarning with this one.

I'm currently looking like the eye will be just west of me early Friday am. Exactly where we were 3 days ago. Looking similar to charlie from like 04/05, but a little further north.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6515 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:48 pm to
quote:

I live in Sarasota.


The surge, not wind, is what worries me. If you’ve never been to the area from St Pete to Tamp and south to Sarasota/Lido it’s hard to imagine how much water is really there. Everything is on or near the water and not very high. Lots of structures built prior to the new codes that were adopted in the 90s and at ground level.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 10:52 pm
Posted by WylieTiger
Member since Nov 2006
13903 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:48 pm to
You will do fine. Many of us in LA rode out storms the past few years. Just prepare and do your thing. Ida was a scary bitch at my house (100 mph winds), but we managed. If you are in low lying areas prone to surge then rethink your plan. Other than that, rely on your past experiences.
Posted by Dexterous404
Florida
Member since Sep 2022
73 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:48 pm to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:49 pm to
quote:

The surge, not wind, is what worries me.
Posted by Dexterous404
Florida
Member since Sep 2022
73 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:50 pm to
Exactly. The way it floods here just from the afternoon rains is awful. Can’t imagine what this surge could bring.
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
19857 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:50 pm to
quote:

I live in Sarasota. Very close to Ringling Museum, close to the water. Native Floridian here, born in Miami, been through this many, many times in my life. The worst I’ve ever been through was Hugo in Charleston when I was at MUSC.

Were you not around for Andrew? I grew up jax area, definitely had some church friends who went up to Charleston to avoid hugo, regretted it. Their pics of the pines that line i95 were quite memorable, or what was left of them.
Posted by Dexterous404
Florida
Member since Sep 2022
73 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:52 pm to
Thanks! Not planning to evacuate right now, but that may change.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66387 posts
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:53 pm to
quote:

The surge, not wind, is what worries me.

Here are a couple sites I saw tweeted earlier that may be of some help for some folks in these areas.

Riskfactor.com
NHC Storm Surge Risk Map
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