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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:09 pm to Zapps4Life
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:09 pm to Zapps4Life
Can someone remind me what the cone actually represents? Isn’t it basically there is a 50% chance the storm ends up in the cone and a 50% chance it tracks outside of the cone.
6
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:12 pm to ned nederlander
cone is right 2/3 of the time
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:12 pm to ned nederlander
Cone represents all possible tracks of the eye, not the swath of the storm.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:14 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
50% chance it tracks outside of the cone.
50% lol? Come on man
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:15 pm to Zapps4Life
quote:
The outer feeder band will firmly establish and wrap into the low level circulation - then it’s game on. Watch the outer feeder band and developing storms to the east/northeast of the low-level circulation for this clue…
The ways feeder bands establish themselves are fascinating. You sometimes see them linger all the way to the tropics for a storm past New England.
How do you see the high setting up later this week? Does the window close?
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:26 pm to ned nederlander
Fine I’ll google it:
“According to the National Hurricane Center, the entire track of the center of a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane is expected to remain within the cone of uncertainty 60 to 70% of the time, based on its forecast path accuracy over the last five years.“
“According to the National Hurricane Center, the entire track of the center of a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane is expected to remain within the cone of uncertainty 60 to 70% of the time, based on its forecast path accuracy over the last five years.“
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:29 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
Chad504boy
In your professional opinion, Cat 3 or 4 hits FL left coast.
How much do you think it’ll disrupt FL ins market/citizens?
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:37 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
where you located baw?
I’m in Okaloosa county
ETA: I was at a conference about 2 months ago and asked if Okaloosa and Walton had agreed on ‘mandatory’ evacuations yet and apparently they have not. Fricking ridiculous. During Michael I believe it was Walton issued a ‘mandatory’ and Okaloosa said basically said they are issuing an evacuation but legally they can’t force people.
But again those are based on storm surge and storm surge graphs. Downvote me all you want, but that’s straight from the people in charge of issuing them.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:45 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Can someone remind me what the cone actually represents?
The cone is something you put ice cream in.
You can also put crushed ice and flavored syrup in it and you have a snow cone or snowball if you are a baw from Louisiana.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 4:58 pm to Tarps99
quote:
crushed ice
quote:
snow cone
Wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy. If it’s not shaved iced I’d rather just eat the money.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:01 pm to ned nederlander
Happy hour finds the GFS finally picking up an Eastward turn before landfall. We had that little bit of waver on the 12z where it jogged NE just off shore. Now, you can see the pronounced turn.
Still slowing it down, but this run is farther East than the last. May still end up being the Big Bend area, but you actually see it trying to turn the storm now.
Still slowing it down, but this run is farther East than the last. May still end up being the Big Bend area, but you actually see it trying to turn the storm now.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 5:05 pm
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:06 pm to LegendInMyMind
Gonna end up coming in line, just north of Tampa in the next few runs, if not sooner.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Happy hour finds the GFS finally picking up an Eastward turn before landfall. We had that little bit of waver on the 12z where it jogged NE just off shore. Now, you can see the pronounced turn
It’s weird, though, it makes a pronounced eastern turn before turning back north and going to the big bend.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:11 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
It’s weird, though, it makes a pronounced eastern turn before turning back north and going to the big bend
Because it misses the trough on this run.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:22 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Because it misses the trough on this run.
Yep, looking at more closely, you’re correct. Trough seems to turn it east before pulling away and allowing it turn back north a bit.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 5:22 pm
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:27 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
cone is right 2/3 of the time
Cone is always right because they are allowed to shift it when ever they want so they look smart in the end
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:41 pm to rds dc
Recon finds a decent pressure drop since earlier despite only popcorn like convection.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:45 pm to rds dc
it's almost like those dudes at the NHC know what they're doing saying it's going to strengthen even though it looks like shite 
Posted on 9/25/22 at 5:47 pm to Vegas Eddie
quote:
Everyone knows this board is the best knowledge base for every subject known to man
It’s not bad. Particularly when things get tough. Solid weather gurus and the OT prayed my wife from death’s door and out of ICU. So I’m biased towards the board. Full disclosure.
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