re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

We had lighthouse but they dropped us in 2020 so we went with Farmers. My neighbors have USAA and apparently I could qualify due to my fathers service but it wasn’t much cheaper.

We're team GFS now, since the Euro sees a very slow mover over Tampa. That would be *checks notes* bad.

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Let’s get drunk! I’m about to head to Pompano Joe’s.

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frick that go down to Austons on 98. Way better and cheaper food and drinks and will have all the games on

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frick that go down to Austons on 98. Way better and cheaper food and drinks and will have all the games on

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But no beach view. The bar at Surf Hut is better for beach view and games.

It seems this thing simply doesn’t want to intensify. It is about to be behind schedule which could be a very positive development for folks down the line. The longer it takes to intensify the less time it will have to reach major hurricane status. Cat 2 may be its ceiling. We’ll see.

You have no idea what you are talking about

Weather channel is in full on hype mode right now

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the western GFS model starts looking like the winner Walton/Okaloosa/Bay county will 100% be closed so they don’t have to deal with stranded tourists as they unsort everything.

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Lol, wut?

I’ve been to multiple meetings with local officials and generally speaking the rule of thumb for evacuations is storm surge. Storm surge kills more people then anyone, so that prediction is what they use.

Fwiw there’s still some legalalities that aren’t sorted out between ‘mandatory’ evacuations. But if you aren’t a local a county evacuation means you have to depart.

The last thing bay county would do is close down and turn $$$ away because they don’t want to deal with people being stranded.

Upper level low spinning westward over Cuba is providing sufficient shear on the system - this shear is forecast to relax through this afternoon and into tonight. Also placement of the low level flow is currently parallel to orientation of Cuba - too much frictional effects to get a the main outer feeder band from setting up on the northeast side of the low-level circulation. Again, once his upper low kicks off to the northwest and weakens - this will enable the system to strengthen/tighten just up enough such that the low level flow will no longer be strictly parallel to the land orientation of Cuba. The outer feeder band will firmly establish and wrap into the low level circulation - then it’s game on. Watch the outer feeder band and developing storms to the east/northeast of the low-level circulation for this clue…









College of DuPage GOES middle level water vapor