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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:52 am to Jim Rockford
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:52 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Possibility of it shifting further west or nah?
2 H's at most.
Will never make it west of the Pearl though.
0
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:53 am to UpToPar
Yeah weather has lows at 58 on Tuesday. Front is going to push this away from the northern coast.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:55 am to elprez00
quote:
Yeah weather has lows at 58 on Tuesday. Front is going to push this away from the northern coast.
meehhhhhhhh. The front you are talking about is kinda missing this storm.
ETA: as modeled in GFS 12z
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 11:56 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:55 am to elprez00
Depends on how long it takes to develop and how much latitude it gains. If it stays weak too long, it will miss the front
If it strengthens quickly, it will head north and the front will affect the path more
If it strengthens quickly, it will head north and the front will affect the path more
Posted on 9/20/22 at 11:55 am to elprez00
Fingers crossed, buddy.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:12 pm to elprez00
quote:
Yeah weather has lows at 58 on Tuesday. Front is
This front has no impact on Hermine, it would be the next one which is being shown too.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:14 pm to Oates Mustache
GEFS ensembles are interesting 192 hours out. solutions closer to the yucatan, some closer to the gap, others more central cuba
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:16 pm to gaetti15
Yep, slight shift westward from the prior ensembles.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:17 pm to rds dc
Ok what the hell bro. My kick arse private meteorologist just posted we were good for 10 days monday. WTF????
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:20 pm to TutHillTiger
Technically he’s right. That 11th day is gonna be your problem.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:20 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
My kick arse private meteorologist just posted we were good for 10 days monday. WTF????
If he posted that yesterday, hes not a "kick arse" meteorologist.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:20 pm to rds dc
live look at forecasting this storm right now
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:21 pm to Duke
Who the hell is this guy? The hurricane center barely has this up?
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:25 pm to TutHillTiger
06z to 12z GFS ensemble trend. Definitely westward, but this is clearly related to a weaker system initially and less pronounced eastern trough.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:26 pm to TutHillTiger
Well I obviously didn’t read that previous forecast correctly.
“The GFS has this new threat much stronger than the ECMWF, but both models show the new storm as a major hurricane. Currently, the GFS shows landfall somewhere between Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi, while the ECMWF places the storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with no landfall area.
Let me be clear, with both models showing the same situation, we have to take it seriously. There will be some changes in the projected track over the next 2 days, but we need to prepare for a major hurricane. “
frick frick double frick
“The GFS has this new threat much stronger than the ECMWF, but both models show the new storm as a major hurricane. Currently, the GFS shows landfall somewhere between Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi, while the ECMWF places the storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with no landfall area.
Let me be clear, with both models showing the same situation, we have to take it seriously. There will be some changes in the projected track over the next 2 days, but we need to prepare for a major hurricane. “
frick frick double frick
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:28 pm to rds dc
Weather channel will be ramping up the 24/7 doomsday casting.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:30 pm to deltaland
GTFO, we just got hit by a cat 5 4 years ago.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:35 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
Weather channel will be ramping up the 24/7 doomsday casting.
Give em about a day or two.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:36 pm to lsugolfredman
Bad thing about this storm is the gulf has 0 shear available in it. They're pretty much showing right now weak storm = westward strong = more eastward turns north earlier.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:39 pm to deuce985
quote:
weak storm = westward strong = more eastward turns north earlier.
Everyone know this but a system, even a Cat 5, can't plow through a ridge. Wherever that weakness forms is gonna get shite on if the GFS verifies.
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