re: Hurricane Season '24 - Buckle Up - Euro Seasonal 200+ ACE

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FYI, last year was supposed to be worse than 2020. It wasn't

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Well don’t complain about it.

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The pattern setup for the summer is conducive for a more than active season. They are just basing their predictions off of that.

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Climo + leading indicators all point towards an active season.

Last season, Climo suggested below normal, and the leading indicators were a mixed bag. However, SSTs were strongly in favor of an active season, and a lot of people latched on to that when the climate models started spitting out crazy numbers for hurricane season. In the end, a conservative Climo based forecast was the best.

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Worse is the names

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Don't look at the auxiliary names list.

If you wanna geek out on some past history check this guys X thread. He’s mostly in the middle politics wise which is better than 99.9% of the others:

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“The bottom line is that there has not been an increase in the number of major hurricanes as a global sum in the past 30-40 years, yet individual basins have seen trends -- related to non-climate change factors.”

Ryan Maue X LINK

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Hurricane Season '24 - Buckle Up

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Shut your whore mouth until August.

How do I bet the under?

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Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña

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Thanks, Biden.

I wondered the same thing. Thought they didn’t reuse names. I guess Isaac gonna finish what he didn’t do last time.

Going back to 2010, Philip Klotzbach and CSU's April Atlantic Basin hurricane season forecasts have been:

2010 - Above
2011 - Above
2012 - Below
2013 - Above
2014 - Below
2015 - Below
2016 - Average
2017 - Below
2018 - Above
2019 - Above for named storms only, the rest was below average
2020 - Above
2021 - Above
2022 - Above
2023 - Below

I can see the Hurricane Gordon billboards already