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re: Hurricane Season '24 - Buckle Up - Euro Seasonal 200+ ACE
Posted on 4/4/24 at 8:58 pm to Drank
Posted on 4/4/24 at 8:58 pm to Drank
quote:
It’s going to be active and above average.
All time? Humans haven’t been here long enough or have enough ‘forever’ data that justify their use of extreme language in their banners and lowers (a ’we need clicks and views to stay alive’ medium now ) but actual science points to it being a spicy summer and fall.
Fair enough point. Don't fault the messenger for the media's hype, though.
1
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:26 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Fair enough point. Don't fault the messenger for the media's hype, though.
Not faulting you at all! Was waiting for this thread after the anticipated announcement today. Was just saying it’s going to be obviously hyped bc of the medium it’s delivered by but doesn’t change the actual science of it.
The data has been pointing to this one for a minute.
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:28 pm to Drank
quote:
Not faulting you at all!
I didn't mean me. I meant don't fault the folks who put out this particular forecast for how the media runs with it. That's what it seems like some people do. That's more directed at people who want to shite on the forecast, I know that's not what you were doing.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:45 pm to rds dc
Does Colorado St still put this out? I used to LOL at the fear porn from a place incapable of being affected by a hurricane.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:52 pm to tilco
Also data is flawed across the board as they are much quicker to tag a storm with a name these days. Zero consistency. How can you reconcile data that hasn’t been consistent?
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:06 pm to rds dc
Conditions are ripe and all but it’s far from a surety. 2005 and 2020 were wild but nobody expected it
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:19 pm to tilco
Those who want to ignorantly stick to the "They say this every year!" nonsense, you do so at your own peril.
Since 2010 CSU has overshot the final tally of the Atlantic hurricane season only three times. That is with their April forecast, or the first forecast they release for every Atlantic season.
They are far more likely to to under shoot the overall named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in a given season than they are to overshoot it.
2018 was their "best" April forecast where they missed each category (named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes) by 1 under. They still forecast that season to be above average.
2020 was their "worst" April forecast where they were under across the board with a forecast for 14 fewer named storms, 6 fewer hurricanes, and 3 fewer major hurricanes. They also forecast that season to be above average.
Their largest spread to the high side for named storms during that timeframe is +5 in 2022.
Since 2010 CSU has overshot the final tally of the Atlantic hurricane season only three times. That is with their April forecast, or the first forecast they release for every Atlantic season.
They are far more likely to to under shoot the overall named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in a given season than they are to overshoot it.
2018 was their "best" April forecast where they missed each category (named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes) by 1 under. They still forecast that season to be above average.
2020 was their "worst" April forecast where they were under across the board with a forecast for 14 fewer named storms, 6 fewer hurricanes, and 3 fewer major hurricanes. They also forecast that season to be above average.
Their largest spread to the high side for named storms during that timeframe is +5 in 2022.
This post was edited on 4/6/24 at 11:48 am
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:50 pm to jbird7
quote:
These people can barely predict the tracks of these storms when they form, let alone predict how many there will be 3 months out.
This is patently false. Their tracks have gotten insanely good in the past ten years. It’s intensity forecasting that needs continued work.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 4:24 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Don't look at the auxiliary names list.
Instead of having an Aux names list, the should just add a few names more to the list.
I know there is no Q storm. We can have the first African named storm.
Quiana
Queen
Qadira
Quanesha
Queena
Quetzalli
Quincy
Quinn
Quintessa
Qamar
Qiturah
Quilla
Quincey
Quinlan
Quinley
Quinlyn
Qamra
Quella
Querida
Quest
Queta
Quinta
Quintana
Qaali
Other letters not used are U, X, Y, and Z.
This post was edited on 4/5/24 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 4/6/24 at 10:22 am to rds dc
New Euro Seasonal model is out and puts ACE in '05 & '17 territory.
Also, precipitation anomalies show an increased threat to the Caribbean/Gulf
Also, precipitation anomalies show an increased threat to the Caribbean/Gulf
Posted on 4/6/24 at 10:31 am to OU Guy
If a hurricane is gonna ruin me, I want it to be Valarie. Sounds like a stripper anyway.
Posted on 4/11/24 at 11:41 am to rds dc
quote:
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
The latest ECMWF+UKMET "superblend" for the heart of hurricane season continues to suggest a very active pattern in the Atlantic.
It seems to favor east-to-west tracks & not recurving systems.
Above normal precipitation covers the Gulf of Mexico & Southeast...
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1778417215395524861
Posted on 4/11/24 at 11:51 am to rds dc
quote:
Sea surface temperatures in the
eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels
Same claim every freaking year!!
Posted on 4/11/24 at 11:51 am to rds dc
quote:
Sea surface temperatures in the
eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels
Same claim every freaking year!!
Posted on 4/11/24 at 12:05 pm to KLSU
quote:
Same claim every freaking year!!
You sure about that? Or, are you doing the same thing people do when they say, "They always say it will be an above average season!"?
Posted on 4/24/24 at 5:51 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 4/24/24 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 4/24/24 at 6:27 pm to rds dc
“This hurricane season should be more active than normal with these Gulf temps.”
../Said every year for two decades.
../Said every year for two decades.
Posted on 4/24/24 at 7:48 pm to pwejr88
quote:
“This hurricane season should be more active than normal with these Gulf temps.”
../Said every year for two decades.
Another person that is wrong.
Posted on 4/24/24 at 9:17 pm to tilco
quote:
Also data is flawed across the board as they are much quicker to tag a storm with a name these days.
Named storms have always had the same criteria.
Difference now is satellites have become so good that we're detecting strong we never would have identified prior to the satellite era or even 10 years ago.
That's why you have systems "stealing a name" by topping out at 40 mph and dissipating a day later. Those would have been recorded as invests or depressions in the past.
Posted on 4/24/24 at 9:26 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
It’s fricking April we aren’t even out of tornado season yet
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