re: Hurricane Season - We back - NHC 10% Gulf Action

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Not sure about surge but this track looks similar to Isaac, but Isaac was a slow mover.

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Not sure about surge but this track looks similar to Isaac, but Isaac was a slow mover.

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The origins of Barry can be traced to a mesoscale convective vortex – a complex of thunderstorms – that formed over southwestern Kansas on July 2.[5] On July 5, the Climate Prediction Center noted the possibility for this disturbance to interact with a trough of low pressure over the Southeastern United States, eventually triggering the formation of a low pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico.[6] The following day, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) highlighted a low likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis while the disturbance was still centered well-inland over Tennessee, anticipating that the weather system would track into the northern Gulf of Mexico.[7] Over the next few days, the system drifted southeastward towards Georgia, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its west.[5] By July 8, the NHC assessed a high probability of a tropical cyclone developing due to favorable conditions in the Gulf.[8] On July 9, a broad area of low pressure exited the Florida Panhandle and tracked into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, accompanied by scattered convection. It moved southwestward and curved to the west on the east side of the ridge.[5] On July 10, the NHC initiated advisories on the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, due to its threat the system posed to the United States. At that time, the low pressure area was experiencing some northerly wind shear, which was expected to decrease. Sea surface temperatures of 86–88 °F (30–31 °C) allowed the system to gradually organize.[9]


At 00:00 UTC on July 11, the system developed into a tropical depression about 200 mi (320 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The depression intensified into Tropical Storm Barry six hours later as the convection had increased to the south of the system's circulation.[5] The storm's convection organized into a large rainband south of an elongated circulation,[10] though mid-level dry air and northerly wind shear prevented thunderstorms from forming near the center.[11][5] On July 12, data from two hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft found that Barry had quickly intensified, with its central pressure dropping.[12] Due to a slight decrease in shear on the morning of July 13, the storm's outflow expanded and the banding increased.[13] The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument also found cloud tops colder than -80 °F (-62 °C) mostly south of the center.[14] Barry attained Category 1 hurricane status by 12:00 UTC that day, with a small area of hurricane-force winds occurring east of the center.[15] Simultaneously, the storm reached its peak intensity, with a minimum central pressure of 993 millibars (29.3 inHg).[5] At 15:00 UTC that day, Barry made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Marsh Island, Louisiana.[16] Barry was one of four hurricanes to hit Louisiana at Category 1 intensity in the month of July, the others being Bob in 1979, Danny in 1997, and Cindy in 2005.[2]

The storm quickly weakened after landfall, falling to tropical storm status late on July 13.[17] The storm moved slowly, leading to widespread flooding in Louisiana and Arkansas.[18] Barry further weakened to a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on July 15 just south of the Louisiana-Arkansas border.[5] Satellite imagery showed that the cyclone had become elongated by that time.[19] At 12:00 UTC that same day, Barry degenerated into a remnant low over northern Arkansas. The remnant low continued to spin down and degenerated into a trough at 12:00 UTC a day later, over southern Missouri.[5] Over the next few days, Barry's remnants continued moving northeastward and then eastward, reaching Pennsylvania on July 18 and linking up with a cold front, and moving off the coast of Long Island late that day. On July 19, Barry's remnants were absorbed into another extratropical storm to the south of Nova Scotia.[1]

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Barry

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How far west does this seem to effect?

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