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Posted on 8/15/21 at 6:51 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
So this thing just going to shoot across the Gulf into TX?
The latest model runs including the GFS, take her into central Mexico.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 7:25 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
big ole storm rolling through houston right now
Guess that’s what we’re getting slammed with in LC (frick weather) right now. Lost power, but constant lightning strikes and some decent gusts and a little flash flooding.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 7:37 pm to rds dc
Recon on Fred just found 62 knots flight level and 48 knots SFMR to the east of the center. Slow strengthening is ongoing.
This post was edited on 8/15/21 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 8/15/21 at 7:52 pm to NorthEndZone
If that shear relaxes a bit this thing might make a run at CAT1 before landfall it has time.
This post was edited on 8/15/21 at 7:53 pm
Posted on 8/15/21 at 7:55 pm to antibarner
I think the shear has relaxed to a decent degree already.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 8:07 pm to rds dc
If Grace can stay just south of the islands she will be a problem in the gulf if she enters as a TS
Posted on 8/15/21 at 8:10 pm to Duke
Quite a pressure drop in the last few hours but something is still keeping it an east sided storm. Let's hope it stays that way but I don't like the pressure falls.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 8:16 pm to antibarner
There's some shear, but it's at a better level for the storm (upper levels).
Posted on 8/15/21 at 8:38 pm to Duke
So do I need to take day off to go secure houseboat in bayou black this week for Grace?
Posted on 8/15/21 at 8:44 pm to rds dc
00z Early Cycle for Grace
18z Ensembles
18z Ensembles
Posted on 8/15/21 at 9:25 pm to rds dc
The Euro has been complete trash this season, but that ensemble run is at least worth considering.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 9:28 pm to Oates Mustache
I don’t know why I’m still nervous about this one
Hope it stays this way
Hope it stays this way
Posted on 8/15/21 at 9:29 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
PhillyTiger90
Where are you? These runs are always concerning until it makes landfall and dissipates. If there's any weakness in the ridge or it isn't as potent as being forecast, then that would spell trouble for TX/LA potentially.
This post was edited on 8/15/21 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 8/15/21 at 9:39 pm to Oates Mustache
Nola metro
Posted on 8/15/21 at 10:07 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
Tropical Depression #Eight Advisory 1: New Tropical Depression Forms Northeast of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Watch Issued For Bermuda and Nearby Waters.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 10:11 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
wheres the direct hit going to be for Fred?
Posted on 8/15/21 at 10:12 pm to rds dc
quote:
Grace
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Posted on 8/15/21 at 10:17 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
Tropical Depression #Eight Advisory 1: New Tropical Depression Forms Northeast of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Watch Issued For Bermuda and Nearby Waters.
Should be a non-factor name waster but of course the HWRF has it as this moving SW at the end of the run.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 10:22 pm to rds dc
The models or the NHC personnel ain’t worth a frick.
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