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1
Posted on 8/12/21 at 3:07 pm to CitizenK
Is it too late for a large shift in direction, experts?
Posted on 8/12/21 at 4:03 pm to PhillyTiger90
Seems like Elsa, Fred, and 95L are following the same basic path. Every hurricane season seems to have a favorite path or groove that storms get locked into.
Posted on 8/12/21 at 4:41 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
95L. More model support coming on board.
Not too impressed with 95L at this point. Conditions probably won't improve until the North Atlantic wave breaking stops dumping PVS into the Tropical Atlantic. Things can change but, as of now, it looks like 95L would need to take a track south of the Islands to find better conditions.
Posted on 8/12/21 at 4:41 pm to Klingler7
It’s a pretty common path for Atlantic storms when that Bermuda high is set in place
When the ridge is strong it sends them through the keys into the gulf
When it’s weak they go to the east coast
If a cold front erodes it they turn out to sea
When the ridge is strong it sends them through the keys into the gulf
When it’s weak they go to the east coast
If a cold front erodes it they turn out to sea
Posted on 8/12/21 at 4:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
North Atlantic wave breaking stops dumping PVS
This is a new one. What’s this mean?
Posted on 8/12/21 at 4:45 pm to deltaland
Simply the north Atlantic is dropping troughs and shear across the northern hurricane growing zone.
Posted on 8/12/21 at 6:55 pm to rds dc
95L gonna be Fred 2.0
Posted on 8/12/21 at 7:25 pm to Oates Mustache
Don’t worry about that. The dusty air will eat up 95L
Posted on 8/12/21 at 7:26 pm to BPTiger
quote:
Don’t worry about that. The dusty air will eat up 95L
African dust says Peej
Posted on 8/12/21 at 7:41 pm to ArHog
Posted on 8/12/21 at 7:47 pm to rds dc
quote:
Not too impressed with 95L at this point.
I’d feel better if Peej posted that.
Posted on 8/12/21 at 7:49 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
I’d feel better if Peej posted that
Would definitely be a nothing burger
Posted on 8/12/21 at 8:14 pm to SECbro
Go home AVNI, you're drunk
Posted on 8/12/21 at 8:18 pm to Hulkklogan
This recon is ugly. Haven't seen a west wind barb yet.
Fred chose the wrong way over Hispaniola.
Fred chose the wrong way over Hispaniola.
Posted on 8/12/21 at 8:26 pm to Duke
Does anyone know if there is an archive of spaghetti models for specific storms? SECbro's comment got me to wondering what the spaghetti models for Hurricane Ivan looked like, and which models back then may have actually picked up on its long life and travels.
This post was edited on 8/12/21 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 8/12/21 at 8:29 pm to Duke
quote:
Fred chose the wrong way over Hispaniola.
There is no nice trip to Haiti
Posted on 8/12/21 at 8:32 pm to Cosmo
Unless you're a Clinton.
Posted on 8/12/21 at 8:33 pm to Duke
quote:
This recon is ugly. Haven't seen a west wind barb yet.
Fred chose the wrong way over Hispaniola.
They did pin a 1013 (ETA: then a 1014)
Both the HWRF and HMON basically keep this an open wave until it gets out in the Gulf.
This post was edited on 8/12/21 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 8/13/21 at 5:29 am to rds dc
Anyone else noticing that it’s slowing down?
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