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re: Hurricane Season - TD9 - Oh Boy
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:04 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:04 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
All we've heard about over the past few days is the 100mph shear in the northern gulf that was supposed to destroy whatever came this way and now we've got a model showing 948mb at the mouth of the river.
I think it depends on the strength of the shortwave trough over Texas. It’s possible the shear won’t be there
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:05 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
latest gfs ensembles
Legend and/or RDS
How to they weight the ensembles to get the black line?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:07 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:Man, that black line in the center can EAD.
latest gfs ensembles
Much like OysterPoboy is gonna have to do.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:08 pm to FCP
What an awesome week to live in Nola. We get our asses whooped by the dirty birds and are about to take a hurricane right to the chin in the same week.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:09 pm to trussthetruzz
Oh hell no. None of them lines vibe with my life. 
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:09 pm to rds dc
quote:
The shear is still going to be there, but a faster & stronger storm will interact more positively with it than a slower, weaker storm. The NHC forecast calls for weakening on final approach because of shear and dry air.
The 18z HAFS-B seems to have a good handle on the setup and shows the system landfalling with storms sheared off away from the center.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:12 pm to deltaland
quote:
It’s possible the shear won’t be there
This is shear wishcasting
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:13 pm to rds dc
Is this the longest thread in the history of Tigerdroppings?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:13 pm to rds dc
Sounds like I’d better cancel my reservations for my AirBnB and dinner on Saturday in Fairhope. Nothing brings in the first hurricane of the season in mid-October quite like me planning a trip in February. 
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:14 pm to Icansee4miles
Time for the bingo card to come out again.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:15 pm to LootieandtheBlowfish
quote:
Is this the longest thread in TD history?
33 pages in now so probable getting close definitely will be by the time this thread is over.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:17 pm to gaetti15
quote:
Just like im concerned when I see on Fox 8 NO that their graff model has the storm taking similar but opposite direction approach as Katrina
The GRAF is a proprietary model that is contracted out to local tv stations. It is not a model readily available to public, as it is a commercial product. If a news station pays for it you better believe they are going to use/promote it. It’s not a bad model, but local stations routinely push it even when it’s not aligned with other models. It’s used a lot ahead of a significant weather event, when said event is further out. If you observe these events, most stations will gradually shift to relying on other models and forecasts closer to the event. It can’t be said enough that we should always follow the national hurricane center’s guidance.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:18 pm to Byrdybyrd05
That line at a 902mb is the death nail for the big easy
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:19 pm to Tiger Ryno
quote:
This is shear wishcasting
Shearcasting
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:19 pm to Icansee4miles
quote:
Nothing brings in the first hurricane of the season in mid-October quite like me planning a trip in February.
Eh, could be my fault. I’m in Ocean Springs and, as of last week, I’m having a new pool installed. First, they dug the hole and then we get hammered with 3” of rain weather over the weekend. The sides fell down in several places and mud stopped the pumps from removing water. We’re past that now and the race is on to get the next steps done before we get nailed again. I’m not overly optimistic about it at this point. So, my bad for putting in a pool during hurricane season.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 7:20 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:21 pm to Chad504boy
All the M’s. I’d rather it move one H than an M or S.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:25 pm to FrankandBeans
quote:
The GRAF is a proprietary model that is contracted out to local tv stations.
Oh yeah I know all that
Its similar to the meso models like NAM etc..
The point i was trying to make is if you live in eother location the models hates...you tend to focus on what those models say moreso than the ones that dont (until they also show it coming toward you
)Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:27 pm to Spasweezy
quote:
Is this the longest thread in the history of Tigerdroppings
Hahaha..Not even close..
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