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Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:25 pm to SWLA92
quote:
Gfs coming in hotter. The 12z had it making landfall near Venice Sunday morning at 996 mb. The 18z has it making landfall Saturday night at 982mb near Mobile
18z models are running with the first batch of upper-air recon data. First low-level recon will be tomorrow morning, and that typically gives the hurricane models an increase in accuracy.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:27 pm to rds dc
I’m thinking we are taking 1 right up the gut thru Venice. Won’t be surprised if this thing strengthens either.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:27 pm to RazorBroncs
Sooo many "I" Male names has been RETIRED they had to dig deep for
ISAIAS
Eeee saaa eee uuss
Still a TD for now....
Been saying if im Jim Cantore or Reed Timmer ...Pascagoula is where i am hunkering down for a Landfall
Wind shear along the northern Gulf will knock him down some ; but how much? That water plenty Warm!
Check those storms headed into Tampa Bay
ISAIAS
Eeee saaa eee uuss
Still a TD for now....
Been saying if im Jim Cantore or Reed Timmer ...Pascagoula is where i am hunkering down for a Landfall
Wind shear along the northern Gulf will knock him down some ; but how much? That water plenty Warm!
Check those storms headed into Tampa Bay
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:27 pm to fightin tigers
quote:But isn't the actual error narrower?
The margin of error is the cone
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:29 pm to Jake88
quote:
But isn't the actual error narrower?
They removed the centerline because of this thought process
The margin of error at 72 hours is however wide the cone is at 72 hours. Sometimes it is 50 miles. Sometimes it is 200 miles.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:31 pm to TutHillTiger
Everything you said is actually the opposite what Levi said 
Slower southerly track allows more adverse conditions to come in to disrupt the storm as it has everything slides down from Texas which adds more adverse conditions like shear to the storm. More northern and faster on the track = potentially stronger storm because it has a better chance to fight off adverse conditions due to timing which means easterly track like Bama/Florida with a stronger storm.
Slower southerly track allows more adverse conditions to come in to disrupt the storm as it has everything slides down from Texas which adds more adverse conditions like shear to the storm. More northern and faster on the track = potentially stronger storm because it has a better chance to fight off adverse conditions due to timing which means easterly track like Bama/Florida with a stronger storm.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:32 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:32 pm to fightin tigers
I recall that. Ok.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:37 pm to Jake88
So is the northern windshear just not a thing anymore? I thought everthing pointed to this storm weakening as it approached the gulf coast.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:43 pm to m57
I follow Bob Breck who’s usually very good , he think this storm follows some front into the Florida Big Ben area.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:43 pm to m57
quote:
So is the northern windshear just not a thing anymore? I thought everthing pointed to this storm weakening as it approached the gulf coast.
The shear is still going to be there, but a faster & stronger storm will interact more positively with it than a slower, weaker storm. The NHC forecast calls for weakening on final approach because of shear and dry air.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:46 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
The margin of error at 72 hours is however wide the cone is at 72 hours. Sometimes it is 50 miles. Sometimes it is 200 miles.
Not really. The margin of errror is consistent each year and is based on past forecast accuracy. So the cone width at 72 hrs for 2026 is the same for each storm. It doesn’t take into account the uncertainty for each individual storm.
The Cone!
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:47 pm to RBTiger
quote:
they had to dig deep for
ISAIAS
Just heard ABC news pronounce this as EE-sah-EE-sus. Wtf. I'm gonna call that shite eye-ZAY-us.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
The shear is still going to be there, but a faster & stronger storm will interact more positively with it than a slower, weaker storm. The NHC forecast calls for weakening on final approach because of shear and dry air.
There's at least one poster who really, really hopes it weakens enough to not be a hurricane at landfall.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:49 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Did we get complacent? Because it feels like we got complacent.
One of us got really complacent and flew way too close to the dick.....I mean sun.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:50 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:50 pm to LSUBFA83
quote:
Just heard ABC news pronounce this as EE-sah-EE-sus. Wtf. I'm gonna call that shite eye-ZAY-us.
That's how they pronounced it a few years ago when it was last on the list.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:56 pm to rds dc
Does a tropical storm really merit this sort of panic and media coverage?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:57 pm to FutureMikeVIII
Charts showing current forecast track error compared to the past:
To read the 2025 forecast accuracy report, search "NHC 2025 Verification Report". It is a PDF and I don't know how to link those.
To read the 2025 forecast accuracy report, search "NHC 2025 Verification Report". It is a PDF and I don't know how to link those.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:57 pm to Septiger
quote:
I follow Bob Breck who’s usually very good
I remember joking on air about his wife breaking her ankle. She later died of a blood clot, he didn't predict that.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 6:02 pm to Septiger
Yeah, he’s usually right and doesn’t do fear for likes and follows.
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