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re: Hurricane Season - TD9 - Oh Boy
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:40 pm to Chad504boy
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:40 pm to Chad504boy
Oh God, this thread got stickied. That's always my first warning sign with an approaching storm for SELA.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:44 pm to JS87
quote:
Gulf Shores right in the bullseye :-(
This far out means your safe if you're in the bullseye.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:44 pm to Joehat
quote:
Oh God, this thread got stickied.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 4:56 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:47 pm to back9Tiger
quote:What's the error in a 72 hour forecast? I thought it was about 50 miles east or west of that center line.
This far out means your safe if you're in the bullseye.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:54 pm to fightin tigers
Looks like latest DeepMind has it right over Pensacola.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:57 pm to fightin tigers
I meant the area of forecasted landfall. Tell me more if Im way off.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 4:58 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
Looks like latest DeepMind has it right over Pensacola.
f*ck
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:00 pm to Jake88
quote:
What's the error in a 72 hour forecast? I thought it was about 50 miles east or west of that center line.
The average National Hurricane Center forecast track error at 72 hours is ~80 to 90 nautical miles (~90–100 statute miles). The 50-mile mark represents the typical NHC track error at 36 to 48 hours, rather than 72 hours.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:00 pm to rds dc
Did we get complacent? Because it feels like we got complacent.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:02 pm to rds dc
Anyone know where I can buy toilet paper in bulk? Only have 5 cases and I usually like to have 15-20 stocked up.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:03 pm to Jake88
Gfs coming in hotter. The 12z had it making landfall near Venice Sunday morning at 996 mb. The 18z has it making landfall Saturday night at 982mb near Mobile
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:03 pm to TigerNAtux
New GFS into Alabama
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:04 pm to lsuman25
will be interested to see if the ensembles shift east also
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:06 pm to trussthetruzz
I was saying 50 miles either east or west of the spot of predicted landfall, meaning a potential total of 100 miles. Is that wrong?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:09 pm to SWLA92
Good trend with an east shift hopefully when the 00Z models come out tonight that continues with the HH data fed intp them
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:11 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
Looks like latest DeepMind has it right over Pensacola.
Welp, I'm about to drive 10 hours to Arkansas with a family stomach virus wreaking havoc
Should be great fun
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:15 pm to Jake88
quote:
What's the error in a 72 hour forecast? I thought it was about 50 miles east or west of that center line.
The cone is the error. I think it shows one standard deviation from the projected centerline at each forecast time.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:18 pm to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
he cone is the error.
I asked earlier, were the preliminary coordinates from the small gulfstream aircraft they were supposed to fly today? Did that take place?
I know they were planning to fly one of the big boys tomorrow.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 5:23 pm to Lsut81
Hopefully it keeps shifting east
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