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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:50 pm to deltaland
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:50 pm to deltaland
quote:
Why are models not developing it?
The GFS was too convectively active with the system yesterday and the outflow from that convection eventually allowed the system to fracture a PV streamer over the islands. This reduced shear over the system and then allowed the PV streamer to act as an outflow channel.
The 12z today had less convection which allowed the PV streamer to extend down over the system and impart shear on it.
The 12z Euro shows a similar solution.
If the system can't organize and produce sustained convection over the next 24-48hrs then it can't produce the necessary outflow to alter the upper air environment out in front of it. So the system encounters shear and stays weak as it moves east across the Caribbean.
The 18z GEFS does show some members that eventually develop this over the Western Gulf.
4
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:54 pm to Oates Mustache
GFS at this point has covered all possible outcomes I think
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:54 pm to rds dc
Interesting, thanks 
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:54 pm to Oates Mustache
Fratella is comparing this system to Ida, I guess for difficulty in forecasting.
This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 7:55 pm to Cosmo
quote:
You sound disappointed
I literally said I was glad it doesn’t develop it
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:46 pm to LegendInMyMind
Waiting for the HMON doomcane
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
The 18z GEFS does show some members that eventually develop this over the Western Gulf.
Yeah, at this point that is what Im expecting *IF* anything happens.
This post was edited on 8/24/22 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:54 pm to maisweh
Won't get that model or HWRF runs until they give it an Invest label if they ever do.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 8:54 pm to rds dc
quote:somebodies definition of “moving east” is pretty fked up if I must say so
So the system encounters shear and stays weak as it moves east across the Caribbean
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:09 pm to DTRooster
Is that like east of west?
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:13 pm to Cosmo
I’m kinda surprised this thread has lasted this long. Not disappointed though.
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:15 pm to Cosmo
I don’t know other than ever since I learned to navigate off the dipper and North Star 40something years ago I’ve been going backwards and it’s a wonder I know where my house is
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:21 pm to DTRooster
quote:
quote:
So the system encounters shear and stays weak as it moves east across the Caribbean
somebodies definition of “moving east” is pretty fked up if I must say so
Yea, that should be the other east or as some say "west"
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:22 pm to rds dc
How many H's are we talking about?
Posted on 8/24/22 at 9:31 pm to rds dc
Fk all that east, west bs. Do I have a himicane headed for me or not?
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:04 pm to DTRooster
quote:
Fk all that east, west bs. Do I have a himicane headed for me or not?
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:05 pm to DTRooster
Check back Saturday pm
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:06 pm to DTRooster
quote:
Do I have a himicane headed for me or not?
Did you just assume a hurricane’s gender before it’s even born?
Posted on 8/24/22 at 10:17 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Fratella is comparing this system to Ida, I guess for difficulty in forecasting.
He’s been awful this season. Wish casting on a weather channel level. Lost a lot of respect for him, didn’t think he was like that. He’s dying for another storm.
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