re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

6z GFS doing a "Look at me Houston" this round. 00z Euro still not playing along but their 10 day out is interesting./

Well Bastardi is hinting the wave in the Caribbean could be another Harvey

LINK

quote:

---

6z GFS doing a "Look at me Houston" this round. 00z Euro still not playing along but their 10 day out is interesting./

---

The Houston storm on that run is actually from a seperate low pressure that comes off the coast of SA.

The current one we are watching doesn’t develop and goes into the Yucatán to die

I am weather illiterate so beg of you to give me the skinny like you're talking to a golden retriever. Am I seeing this correctly in this thread that next week starting August 29th should be calm for those 7 days, but then after that we (Cameron Parish, Texas Border etc) could be in for a hurricane that has a lot of the same early movements of Harvey?

I’m ready for the Blue Shed!

quote:

---

they are by no means fear mongers

---

quote:

---

Space City Weather

---

Uhhhhh.... what? They are some of the biggest fear mongers and wish casters out there

quote:

---

everyone thinks they are wishcasters.

---

It's kind of crazy. The wxinfinity (old KHOU forums) are filled with houston area people and they go crazy at a hint of a system heading their way. I don't think Space City wishcasts but I haven't looked at their page in years. I read wxinfinity for the laughs, it's usually pretty crazy there.

This is a guy that moderates both Storm2k and the wxinfinity forums. He managed to bring both Ike and Harvey into his "feelings" about this system.

quote:

---

I don't like to publicly post about gut feelings and superstitions as I prefer to stick with the science. But I have experienced a couple of weird feelings the last couple of days. Two days ago, when I did my first long range analysis of the system in the Caribbean, I got a sinking feeling, a pit in my stomach that overcame me. Can't describe the feeling but it was that gut feeling of 'this one's headed this way'

Yes, it was a weird emotional, superstitious reaction to a forecast almost two weeks out, but it was the same feeling I had in 2007 with Ike when he was way out in the open Atlantic. The first time I saw that monster high, I saw the pattern and it made me have a physical reaction like "uh oh" -- so there's that.

Back to the other day. While looking at the maps, I was listening to a random radio station on Amazon and the song "Disturbia" started playing. Now that song...I haven't heard it in a few years probably - and it came on right then. The thing about that song is that it was my mental soundtrack when Ike was headed this way. It was popular on the radio at the time (I love Rihanna too) and I was constantly playing it and since then, I have always associated that song with Ike. That's the second thing of weirdness.

Combine that feeling with what I see on the models (it eerily is a pattern like Harvey, and like Harvey, I don't expect this storm to ramp-up until the end) and as Han would say..... "I have a bad feeling about this"

---

From space city post this morning

quote:

---

Both the European and US GFS models have been highlighting this potential for a couple of days, and I’d say there’s a pretty good chance that some sort of tropical system, whether it be a disorganized area of thunderstorms or a tropical storm, will reach the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. After that, it probably would move into the Gulf of Mexico. It could really go anywhere after that, but the most likely locations would be Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana. The bottom line is that we’re looking at the possibility of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as we head into Labor Day weekend.

---

LINK

Who lotta maybes in that post