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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat
Posted on 8/21/22 at 7:55 pm to The Cool No 9
Posted on 8/21/22 at 7:55 pm to The Cool No 9
quote:
When's the last back to back BR hurricane happened?
You done F’d up now.
0
Posted on 8/21/22 at 8:48 pm to habz007
quote:
But please consider starting new threads instead of editing old ones. But I won’t question your methods
I kind of like the idea. ongoing thread for discussion even when we don’t know the next storm
Posted on 8/21/22 at 9:22 pm to trussthetruzz
This is freaking cool and really hard to wrap your mind around. A massive cold surge in the southern hemisphere where it's winter, might cause us to have to deal with a damn tropical system as it pushes North. 
LINK
LINK
quote:
Brrrrr... Another round of Antarctic cold moving through South America. Yes, it is winter in the Southern Hemisphere but some places dipping 10-15°C cooler than average for this time of year.
quote:
Interesting to see a cold surge propagating up South America Amazon. These events can trigger convectively coupled Kelvin waves (#CCKWs) in NATL as outflow reaches Caribbean & main development region (#MDR). Flow enhances convergence & vorticity in ITCZ, seen in GFS forecast.
Posted on 8/21/22 at 9:40 pm to Oates Mustache
Posted on 8/21/22 at 10:01 pm to Oates Mustache
Otis, dammit, you've finally brought something useful.
Posted on 8/21/22 at 10:07 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Interesting to see a cold surge propagating up South America Amazon. These events can trigger convectively coupled Kelvin waves (#CCKWs) in NATL as outflow reaches Caribbean & main development region (#MDR). Flow enhances convergence & vorticity in ITCZ, seen in GFS forecast.
Very interesting. This may be the culprit for the creation of spurious lows off the S America coast that ensembles have been developing for a few days now.
This post was edited on 8/21/22 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 8/21/22 at 10:07 pm to LegendInMyMind
It was from a few Twitter accounts I follow. It's a really cool thing if you really think about it. Just like we can experience a tropical system on the edge of a cold front pushing offshore, freaking south America can screw us the same way.
This post was edited on 8/21/22 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 8/21/22 at 11:34 pm to Oates Mustache
Thats a damn good thread you shared.
Not bad for being drunk at the beach.
Not bad for being drunk at the beach.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 8:46 am to hubertcumberdale
this mornings run is looking good as well for the GOM
Posted on 8/22/22 at 8:55 am to hubertcumberdale
Yeah so far, the models continue to be all over the place and pushing back timelines too. We seriously might go into September without a named system. I want to see it just because it's fairly rare.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 9:00 am to Oates Mustache
very very very interesting.....
After what we had last year and the year before, I think this type of year was due for...
Nowhere near done I know, but very grateful thus far to not have another headache to prepare for etc.
After what we had last year and the year before, I think this type of year was due for...
Nowhere near done I know, but very grateful thus far to not have another headache to prepare for etc.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 10:09 am to longhorn22
I can’t remember the last year that we did not have our first named hurricane through august 22 ?
Posted on 8/22/22 at 10:14 am to Klingler7
We now have Invest 90L. It has the potential to catch a name, you know the NHC is fiending to pull the trigger on it.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 10:28 am to rds dc
I'm no weather guy, but.... I do know the worse ones hit in Sept and the temperature of water in Gulf makes em worse.
It's almost Sept and has been hot af!
It's almost Sept and has been hot af!
Posted on 8/22/22 at 11:19 am to lake chuck fan
quote:
temperature of water in Gulf makes em worse.
It's almost Sept and has been hot af!
about 90% of the time in the summer and through Sept and Oct the gulf is warm enough to support a Cat 5 hurricane
But so many other things have to come together for that to happen gulf water temp should be last thing to worry about and is used as hype by weather people
Posted on 8/22/22 at 11:41 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
about 90% of the time in the summer and through Sept and Oct the gulf is warm enough to support a Cat 5 hurricane
But so many other things have to come together for that to happen gulf water temp should be last thing to worry about and is used as hype by weather people
Exactly
I don’t know what the water temps are now, but here in La. overall it hasn’t been a hot sumner.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 11:59 am to doubleb
quote:
I don’t know what the water temps are now, but here in La. overall it hasn’t been a hot sumner.
Wait, wait, wait, wait a minute....
I was told back in June that it was the hottest ever in the history of ever. And quite a few people used the old tired line, "If it is this hot in June, there's no telling how hot it will be in July and August!". I got downvoted to hell and ended up in an argument when I said that June's temps really have no bearing on how hot the rest of the Summer will be.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 12:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
This is the mildest August I can remember.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 12:03 pm to LegendInMyMind
At least in BR it's really had a lot to do with how much rain we've had. We just haven't had too many sunny days the past 6-8 weeks. I'm totally fine with it. I'd rather the rain as long as there's no flooding.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 12:03 pm to LegendInMyMind
People have short memories when it comes to weather predictions, especially when their claims don't happen.
It's very common in threads like the one on 99L on another site. People were going crazy, shitting on the models, saying it would ramp up and slam Corpus Christi, etc.
None of that shite happened, and guess what? Crickets. They must move on to the next thread like they never posted that crazy shite.
It's very common in threads like the one on 99L on another site. People were going crazy, shitting on the models, saying it would ramp up and slam Corpus Christi, etc.
None of that shite happened, and guess what? Crickets. They must move on to the next thread like they never posted that crazy shite.
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