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Message
re: Hurricane Season - TD9 - Oh Boy
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:24 pm to Finnish
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:24 pm to Finnish
The upper-level pattern over Texas on the 18z GFS is pretty much perfect for outrageous RI on approach to landfall. The GFS probably isn't deep enough, given the setup that it's depicting.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:52 pm to rds dc
quote:
The upper-level pattern over Texas on the 18z GFS is pretty much perfect for outrageous RI on approach to landfall. The GFS probably isn't deep enough, given the setup that it's depicting.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 5:53 pm to rds dc
Well shite
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:00 pm to rds dc
quote:
The upper-level pattern over Texas on the 18z GFS is pretty much perfect for outrageous RI on approach to landfall. The GFS probably isn't deep enough, given the setup that it's depicting.
Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:03 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
Rapid intensification
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:03 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
Cat 2/3, between Gulfport and Pensacola
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:04 pm to ike221
quote:
Rapid intensification
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:04 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
The quote discusses weather modeling, specifically a GFS (Global Forecast System) run showing conditions favorable for extreme rapid intensification (RI) of a tropical system approaching Texas.
In meteorology and weather-forecasting forums (like American Weather or Eastern US/Gulf weather tracking communities), this jargon breaks down as:
• 18z GFS: The 18 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) run of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Global Forecast System computer weather model.
• Outrageous RI: Rapid Intensification, defined as an increase in a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds by at least 30 knots (34.5 mph) in a 24-hour period.
• The GFS probably isn't deep enough: Meaning the computer model's simulated central pressure for the low/storm might be underestimating how strong or vertically developed the actual storm would become given the supportive environmental parameters shown in the upper-level pattern.
In meteorology and weather-forecasting forums (like American Weather or Eastern US/Gulf weather tracking communities), this jargon breaks down as:
• 18z GFS: The 18 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) run of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Global Forecast System computer weather model.
• Outrageous RI: Rapid Intensification, defined as an increase in a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds by at least 30 knots (34.5 mph) in a 24-hour period.
• The GFS probably isn't deep enough: Meaning the computer model's simulated central pressure for the low/storm might be underestimating how strong or vertically developed the actual storm would become given the supportive environmental parameters shown in the upper-level pattern.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:04 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
This hurricane is approaching the perfect environment to suddenly turn the speed knob way up just before it hits land. And he thinks the computer model may not be showing just how strong it could get.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:06 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
He means OysterPoBoy is soon to be known as a dick sucker.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:09 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
He means OysterPoBoy is soon to be known as a dick sucker.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:13 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
Sounds like to me he's saying the GFS is on crack with their scenario.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:13 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
He means OysterPoBoy is soon to be known as a dick sucker.
A bet is a bet.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:14 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Sounds like to me he's saying the GFS is on crack with their scenario.
Not necessarily. He's saying that if the GFS has a good handle on the setup that it is probably underdoing the strength of the storm.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
We are about to find out how far up in NHC rds really is.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:21 pm to fightin tigers
Hurricane models are running right now HMON, HWRF and HAFS A &B
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:25 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
You love calling other people stupid but can't figure that one out?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:27 pm to trussthetruzz
I have a condo in FT Walton this weekend with no cancellation policy ugh.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:46 pm to gsvar2004
Fairhope Alabama this weekend how is that looking?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 6:50 pm to PassGassed
Wet
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