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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - NHC 10% on Gulf Mess - Hopefully, Nothing Else Until August
Posted on 5/13/18 at 9:09 pm to rds dc
Posted on 5/13/18 at 9:09 pm to rds dc
The experimental GFS (FV3-GFS) is pretty similar to the Euro with this system. A low end tropical storm is a possibility but that doesn't really change things much, either way Florida gets a lot of rain this week.
Experimental GFS
Euro
Experimental GFS
Euro
2
Posted on 5/13/18 at 9:09 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This isn't the phantom GFS storm. That one is towards the end of the month.
The 24th?
Posted on 5/13/18 at 9:58 pm to rds dc
Sustained deep convection is one of the key drivers to kicking off a surface low in this setup.
Posted on 5/14/18 at 1:03 am to Fishwater
quote:
Hangout Music Festival is this weekend on the beach in Gulf Shores. That could suck.
A bunch of us are flying down for that. Frick.
Posted on 5/14/18 at 5:35 am to rds dc
I love this thread, hate hurricanes, but I really enjoy watching RDS and crew smoke the TV weather clowns every year and I learn something every year too. Thanks fellas. 
Posted on 5/14/18 at 6:29 pm to 10MTNTiger
The NHC has lowered development chances to 20-30% for the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted on 5/14/18 at 7:25 pm to ColoradoAg03
They aren’t canceling it and compared to the 90 plus heat and 90 plus humity with no wind the past 5 days. You will welcome the rain. Plus side you get half naked coeds in wet clothes !
Posted on 5/14/18 at 8:58 pm to ColoradoAg03
It rained a few years ago at Hangout and it was quite nice FWIW
Posted on 5/15/18 at 8:42 am to rds dc
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern
Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are
becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation. This system, however, will continue to produce locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days
while the low moves generally northward. For more information on
this system, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Avila
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern
Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are
becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation. This system, however, will continue to produce locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days
while the low moves generally northward. For more information on
this system, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Avila
Posted on 5/15/18 at 8:46 am to rds dc
quote:How shitty will this make the weather be in gulf shores this week?
low end tropical storm is a possibility but that doesn't really change things much, either way Florida gets a lot of rain this week.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:34 am to rds dc
Looks like the Euro, GFS and Canadian all have a disturbance in the gulf in 10 days.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:38 am to OldSouth
That thing is welcome to come to Thibodaux. My yard is thirsty and my water bill is gonna be yuge this month
This post was edited on 5/17/18 at 7:46 am
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:41 am to OldSouth
That is the system the GFS has been showing for like 10 days now. This thread was for another disturbance that the NHC was tracking.
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:43 am to rds dc
My bad. I didn't see the other one, I'll let you update it.
This post was edited on 5/17/18 at 7:46 am
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:46 am to rds dc
Should I be concerned about a flight to Boca Raton today?
Posted on 5/17/18 at 10:41 am to Uncle JackD
Going to be beautiful in gulf shores all weekend. A lot of nothing with some of these posts.
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