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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - MDR Boiling, TS Bret and TS Cindy **No Gulf Threats**
Posted on 6/18/23 at 7:10 pm to Duke
Posted on 6/18/23 at 7:10 pm to Duke
quote:
I dont prefer these weaker solutions in the short term. Weaker the storm, the farther west it gets.
South of Cape Verde launches and a weak system. Geometry starts working against you.
1
Posted on 6/18/23 at 7:37 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 6/18/23 at 7:41 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
The models pushing these things into the Caribbean are annoying. Way too early for this shite.
Posted on 6/18/23 at 8:11 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 6/18/23 at 8:23 pm to Duke
quote:
The talk is because there's a lot of model support for development. It is still way out in the Atlantic. So I wouldnt spend too much time worrying right now
The first systems of the season are always overanalyzed. This is a pretty typical MDR system, but in June
If it stays weak, then it probably tracks toward the Islands but encounters unfavorable conditions. If it can get stronger quicker, then it might be able to curve out into the Atlantic and find more favorable conditions for strengthening.
Oh, and of course, HWRF
Posted on 6/18/23 at 8:28 pm to rds dc
quote:
This is a pretty typical MDR system, but in June
Yeah, but in what way does the Atlantic resemble June right now?
quote:
Oh, and of course, HWRF
Ahh, now it feels like hurricane season.
Posted on 6/18/23 at 8:34 pm to Duke
quote:
Yeah, but in what way does the Atlantic resemble June right now?
It's pretty crazy, and there are signs that we might see more of a +ENSO like atmospheric circulation in July. Buckle up.
Posted on 6/18/23 at 8:46 pm to rds dc
Exactly what is a +ENSO for us non weather Baws?
Posted on 6/18/23 at 9:01 pm to rds dc
Might send this pic to my family group text saying it’s a model projection. Just to stir the pot on a nice Sunday evening.
Posted on 6/18/23 at 9:06 pm to iron banks
quote:French Toast for all.
Going to get my supplies
Posted on 6/18/23 at 9:43 pm to rds dc
Saw a video a few weeks ago making the case of an early onset El Nino with warm temps in the Atlantic would portend very active early season and then below average peak to late season....I think 1951 was the only analog, but I still like it.
This post was edited on 6/18/23 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 6/18/23 at 9:44 pm to rds dc
Yeah I didn’t want to be “that guy” but it’s a possible issue
Posted on 6/18/23 at 10:10 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
Exactly what is a +ENSO for us non weather Baws?
El Nino.
Posted on 6/18/23 at 10:38 pm to rds dc
el nino come save us cause we are barely hangin on
Posted on 6/19/23 at 7:13 am to rds dc
Just your typical June with a wave train marching across the MDR
Still not seeing any Gulf threats but do have concerns about July.
Still not seeing any Gulf threats but do have concerns about July.
Posted on 6/19/23 at 7:19 am to rds dc
What is MDR?
Posted on 6/19/23 at 7:21 am to thermal9221
main Development Region
This post was edited on 6/19/23 at 7:24 am
Posted on 6/19/23 at 7:21 am to thermal9221
Main development region
eta: quick on the draw!
eta: quick on the draw!
This post was edited on 6/19/23 at 7:22 am
Posted on 6/19/23 at 7:26 am to Duke
quote:
El Nino
What does El Niño do exactly?
Posted on 6/19/23 at 7:30 am to thermal9221
quote:
What does El Niño do exactly?
I'm pretty sure it's just a fat guy gif
But seriously, it typically makes the Atlantic unfavorable for hurricanes by increasing wind shear and dry air.
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