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Message
Hurricane Season - Gulf Blob NHC 91L 40%
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:14 pm

This post was edited on 7/18/26 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:15 pm to rds dc
Finally an adult has entered the room.
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:19 pm to rds dc
Something something Punta Cana something something breast milk.
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:20 pm to rds dc
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida:
Showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America and
portions of the Florida Peninsula are associated with an upper-level
low and a surface trough. Surface observations indicate that
pressures are high in the area and that currently there are no signs
of a surface circulation. However, some gradual development of this
system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing heavy rain
to portions of the Florida west coast during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida:
Showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America and
portions of the Florida Peninsula are associated with an upper-level
low and a surface trough. Surface observations indicate that
pressures are high in the area and that currently there are no signs
of a surface circulation. However, some gradual development of this
system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing heavy rain
to portions of the Florida west coast during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:25 pm to rds dc
Low-end chances because the setup appears to favor the system moving inland or staying close enough to the coast to prevent much development. However, some of the 18z Euro AI ensemble members do move a weak system towards Louisiana next week.

Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:26 pm to rds dc
When you hear Bertha, you think of a big thicc hefty woman that can pick you up and kinda push you around.
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:27 pm to rds dc
Spaghetti models are the best models
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:29 pm to rds dc
Always look forward to what you have to say. 
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:30 pm to rds dc
I love these threads. You guys are tGOAT of explanations
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:37 pm to rds dc
Is this going to slow down Jimothy's White Boy Summer?
Jimothy
Jimothy
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:41 pm to rds dc
This is because we have too many air conditioners
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:46 pm to rds dc
Don’t become a clutch your pearls bro
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:49 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
That one red dot in a sea of blue and greens south of Mobile bay has me scared.
Comfort me :(
This post was edited on 7/17/26 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 7/17/26 at 8:52 pm to rds dc
Any time lines on movement on this system?
Posted on 7/17/26 at 9:08 pm to dkreller
quote:
Spaghetti models are the best models
I’ll drink to that
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