re: Hurricane Season - 95L NHC 60% - Intertropical Convergence Zone Spin

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A small area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, slow development is
expected and this system will likely become a tropical depression
early next week while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

This isn’t a pissing contest Bruh. Alabama has had its fair share recently. Do you even #Sally and #Zeta

We need all storms to stay at bay or the insurance industry on the Gulf Coast goes belly up.

again this will be nothing

What’s the damn thing going to be called….Emily

Well, intensity outlook has dropped. Some had it as a cat 4. Now barely making cat 2.

I know it will probably be all over the place the next few days though

quote:

---

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent

---

Thought NHC might start walking back development chances at 8:00 am. This still has a short window to form but the high pressure to the north will start pushing this SW and stringing it out. The upper levels will remain uncharacteristically favorable in the Caribbean but without a defined vortex 95L won't be able to counter the low level flow to take advantage of favorable upper levels. Still need to keep an eye on it as it enters the WCAB but overall concern has greatly dropped.

Came here for the update left satisfied…

Dry air and Saharan dust north of system may not inhibit it per Jay grymes
Headed to Carib and Jay said too early to determine if it will affect gulf

Not good!
Jay’s a little worried

quote:

---

by nicholastiger

---

My gosh. Please tell me you aren't going to start bringing your stupidity to hurricane threads.

Dew we evacuate north or west?