re: Hurricane Season - No Current Gulf Threats

quote:

---

Fernand will add a bit more ACE. We can't totally close the door on 99L until it gets pushed into the EPAC. 12z Euro EPS has a few members that spin up in the WCAB.

---

quote:

---

Got it — I’ll break this down super simply:
• Fernand will add a bit more ACE ? Fernand is a storm in the Atlantic. “ACE” stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which is just a way meteorologists keep score of how strong and long-lasting storms are. So Fernand is making that number go up a little.
• We can’t totally close the door on 99L until it gets pushed into the EPAC ? “99L” is the code name for an area of stormy weather (an “invest”) in the Atlantic. Sometimes these just fizzle out, but this one might survive. The “EPAC” is the Eastern Pacific Ocean. If 99L drifts across Central America into the Pacific, then the Atlantic won’t have to worry about it anymore. Until that happens, meteorologists can’t say for sure it’s gone.
• 12z Euro EPS has a few members that spin up in the WCAB ? The “12z Euro EPS” is a European weather model run at noon (“12z”). Instead of giving just one forecast, it gives lots of different possible ones (these are the “members”). A few of those possible forecasts show 99L turning into a storm in the WCAB, which means the Western Caribbean.

Super simple version: Fernand (a storm) is still giving the hurricane season some points. Another blob (99L) hasn’t fizzled out yet — it could still form into a storm before it leaves the Atlantic. The latest Euro forecast shows a few possibilities where it strengthens in the Western Caribbean. ? Do you want me to also draw this out with a cartoon-style map sketch so it’s even easier to see?

---