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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:36 pm to 50_Tiger
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:36 pm to 50_Tiger
I haven't seen any weather service predicting anything close to a category 3. I've seen 80 or 90mph wind forecasted...aren't the models, as far as intensity, pretty unreliable?
1
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:36 pm to GEAUXmedic
yeah, its still early enough for there to be shifts each way, but I think its getting to the point that the gulf coast between Panama City and Mouth of the Miss are the most likely range. I'd bet the FL/AL border by the time its all said and done. The good thing is the Euro and GFS don't show this coming in more than a cat 1.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:39 pm to BigB0882
They don't even have the GFS in the cone of error and usually when the GFS/Euro don't agree that's how wide the cone goes. It will straighten out in the next 2 days. Not sure what's throwing the GFS off. They're both seeing 2 totally different things.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:42 pm to TigerStripes06
Yes. But if this thing blows up down there then you have a major problem coming. Those intensity forecasts can easily go from Cat 1 to Cat 3 by the time it hits landfall. It's heading into super warm waters with low shear. The good thing is it's going to move very fast around friday-sat which is the warmest waters so it's not going to get a chance to syphon it all up.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:43 pm to deuce985
Timing of a cold front?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:44 pm to deuce985
I thought it was pretty unusual to see the storm tracking northwest across the gulf in the gfs this time of year. Euro ain't buying that shite.
There is a STRONG cold front coming in. Gfs shows it not affecting the storm until it actually arrives, the euro has the front pushing the storm east like 2 days ahead of time. Amateur eyes, but that looks like the major difference between the two.
There is a STRONG cold front coming in. Gfs shows it not affecting the storm until it actually arrives, the euro has the front pushing the storm east like 2 days ahead of time. Amateur eyes, but that looks like the major difference between the two.
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:48 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:So it picks up speed when it hits the GoM?
At the very least, no matter where it goes, it's hauling arse.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:55 pm to bobbyleewilliams
Yes because it's making a turn right now
Notice how fast it's projected to move between Friday/Sat. If it hits Panhandle it appears it will be out of there fast too. 24 hours it's already in SC.
Notice how fast it's projected to move between Friday/Sat. If it hits Panhandle it appears it will be out of there fast too. 24 hours it's already in SC.
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:58 pm to deuce985
So if you were going to panama city beach and arriving Saturday afternoon, would you still go?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:59 pm to deuce985
Next advisory should be interesting. Let's see if they stick with the eastern guidance. The precious TVCN goes across Plaquemines Parish into MS.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:00 pm to deuce985
Predicting to go 1,000 miles in 48 hours. That’s definitely hauling arse.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:00 pm to TechDawg2007
I wouldn't personally. Even if you stayed a day it probably would be a pain in the arse to get out. Even if it hits SE LA you'd still be getting it over there with the bands.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:01 pm to GEAUXmedic
How bad is my drive from NELA to Georgia going to suck Sunday?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:02 pm to deuce985
quote:10-4, thank you.
Notice how fast it's projected to move between Friday/Sat. If it hits Panhandle it appears it will be out of there fast too. 24 hours it's already in SC.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:02 pm to TechDawg2007
quote:
So if you were going to panama city beach and arriving Saturday afternoon, would you still go?
If you're staying the entire week, then yes, because it will be gone by Monday at the latest.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
So we now have a battle of Euro V.S. GFS
Either way I'm at work coordinating offshore evacs.
Fun work weekend
Either way I'm at work coordinating offshore evacs.
Fun work weekend
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:05 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm think they're going to shift the cone west based on that. I don't see why they wouldn't? That would be nasty for SELA. That's a knife right in us over here. Hope it doesn't make that path. I'm not sure I'd trust pumps in NO either.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:12 pm to SippyCup
quote:We are arriving saturday afternoon and staying until wedneasday morning... Based on that would you still go?
If you're staying the entire week, then yes, because it will be gone by Monday at the latest.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:19 pm to deuce985
I sure as frick wouldn't. A brisk afternoon shower causes flooding in Nola these days. But hey, statues right?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 2:22 pm to TigerStripes06
Guess I won’t be going to grand Isle this weekend anymore.
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