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1
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:02 pm to slackster
Well frick
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:02 pm to rds dc
quote:
They have hammered the potential for RI in the discussions and have constantly been higher than the models for intensification.
Wish more people read the discussions. Been driving this point home to friends from Mobile to NOLA and not enough have prepared for the possibility. The NHC should get kudos for the intensity forecast and RI discussions though. No doubt.
O_O
That's a big dome of really cold tops. Once again, not used to seeing that, especially in the Atlantic.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:02 pm to slackster
The global models aren't budging on the LA landfall
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:03 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
Where is that gif coming from? That's entirely different than the one I saw 15 minutes ago
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:03 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Any reason why models are still supporting NW movement? This storm has been going NNW all day
high pressure that's building in over the Bahamas/FL peninsula I believe
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:06 pm to shawnlsu
quote:
Where is that gif coming from? That's entirely different than the one I saw 15 minutes ago
It's the 00z CMC
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:07 pm to MrSmith
quote:
We're talking about the rapid intensification of the storm man. Why is that so hard for you to understand?
Oh you're talking about an intensification that is not predicted anywhere. Good job jeff
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:07 pm to rt3
holy crap... Nate went straight to Ludicrous Speed
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:08 pm to rocket31
quote:
Oh you're talking about an intensification that is not predicted anywhere
Except extensively talked about as a real possibility by the National Hurricane Center for three days now.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:09 pm to Duke
Lol
It's been less than 5% chance of over 100mph
That's a real possibility?
It's been less than 5% chance of over 100mph
That's a real possibility?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:10 pm to rt3
quote:
holy crap... Nate went straight to Ludicrous Speed
No, that is the air force plane, they flew all over tarnation in between center fixes
Latest drop:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 3:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2017
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 3:16:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°26'N 86°10'W (22.4333N 86.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 98 statute miles (158 km) to the NNE (27°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,323m (4,341ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the E (84°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 152° at 89kts (From the SSE at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 50° to 230° (NE to SW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the E (88°) from the flight level center at 3:05:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 3kts (From the W at 3mph)
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:11 pm to rt3
Do those lines going straight north and south mean anything? The rest are going east west..sorry for the questions, I'm weather dumb
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:11 pm to Duke
I think rocket might be trolling now lol.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:11 pm to MrSmith
quote:
The global models aren't budging on the LA landfall
It's hard for me to take the Canadian model seriously, but even the GFS was on the extreme eastern edge of the state.
It will be interesting to see the ensemble members and the Euro over the next few hours.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:12 pm to 50_Tiger
Hardly
No prediction has ever given a "real possibility" of cat 2 winds. Zero
It's a lie to suggest as much
No prediction has ever given a "real possibility" of cat 2 winds. Zero
It's a lie to suggest as much
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:12 pm to rocket31
these are the last 2 dropsondes dropped in Nate's eye
Drop 9 0115Z... 21.6 N 86.0 W
Drop 15 0316Z... 22.4 N 86.2 W
in 2 hours it's moved 0.8 N 0.2 W
that's... ummmm... fast
Drop 9 0115Z... 21.6 N 86.0 W
Drop 15 0316Z... 22.4 N 86.2 W
in 2 hours it's moved 0.8 N 0.2 W
that's... ummmm... fast
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:13 pm to rt3
almost 1 deg N in 2 hours. Yeah he's booking it.
Barely any W movement too btw.
Barely any W movement too btw.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:13 pm to rocket31
quote:
That's a real possibility?
Yes. The hurricane center has repeatedly said they have been on the high side of guidance strength wise and there's been a good signal for rapid intensification for days that could make it a stronger storm than they predicted.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 11:15 pm to rocket31
Based on so few evacuations called, I’d say the emergency managers weren’t thinking Cat 2 or 3
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