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re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season

Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:40 am to
Posted by McNeeseLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
588 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:40 am to
Isn't the 06z GFS not as reliable as 00z and 12z?
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
7356 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:43 am to
With a map like that, it may be time to stock up on the water, ice, milk, bread, Vienna sausages, and powdered meat.

Oh wait, that is 15 days out. Scratch the bread, ice, and milk, they don’t last that long.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90502 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:48 am to
quote:

obviously a more southern track would give any potential system more time over the Gulf and less land interaction.


The development of this will depend on where the LLC forms, if one forms at all
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90502 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:52 am to
The frick is that shite
Posted by sp22
Member since Jan 2019
725 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:55 am to
That is projecting 2 weeks from now, and not even the same system
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90502 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 6:56 am to
Latest Euro has a TS forming from 95L and hitting around Destin.

Then has 94L going just north of Cuba heading to the gulf as a hurricane

I’m not liking the trends of the models here
Posted by razorbackfan4life
Northwest Arkansas
Member since Apr 2011
8489 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:00 am to
Just looked at the GFS this morning. Interesting change of events.
Posted by iron banks
Destrehan
Member since Jul 2014
3739 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:34 am to
Too soon to glean much info on the 2 wk GFS. I have watched the GFS move that system around like a ping pong ball. The one this weekend probably give us some rain and cooler temps.
Posted by DeCat ODahouse
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2017
1371 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:37 am to
Right.
Looks like 94L Back up to 60% per cent chance in five days and forecast to track into the gulf.

Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5001 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:38 am to
quote:

Then has 94L going just north of Cuba heading to the gulf as a hurricane


That's not 94L, its the one behind it
Posted by McNeeseLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
588 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:41 am to
95L is 60% not 94L.
Posted by CypressTrout10
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2016
3012 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 7:54 am to
Interesting on this mornings GFS is how that cat4/5 hurricane from the gulf rides up into canada and becomes a blizzard.
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 8:08 am to
Was hoping for some rain from 95L.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:02 am to
GFS

Posted by biggsc
32.4767389, 35.5697717
Member since Mar 2009
34209 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:10 am to
Looks like that system from Tropical Tidbits shows beneficial rain to come this weekend through Wednesday then another possible system coming to the Gulf after that
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166136 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:13 am to
quote:





Posted by biggsc
32.4767389, 35.5697717
Member since Mar 2009
34209 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 9:16 am to
Keep it out!
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 10:05 am to
What it doesn't show on that graphic is it curves into Florida then heads NE right up the east coast.

The one behind it gets slingshot out to sea on GFS and then another is coming off Africa behind that one.

This post was edited on 9/11/19 at 10:09 am
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35606 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 10:08 am to
quote:

What it doesn't show on that graphic is it curves into Florida then heads N.


Yes.

Look at the red lines. Those are the thickness of the 1000-500 mb layer. Looks like a trough right there and would send it north. It's way out on the GFS, so you know, grains of salt.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/11/19 at 10:09 am to
GFS snorting cocaine we all know it.


In comparison the Euro seems to want to turn it N sooner as it goes straight through Hispaniola and Cuba.
This post was edited on 9/11/19 at 10:17 am
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