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Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:58 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Looks like we will have a hurricane with tbe 10pm update.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:59 pm to LegendInMyMind
OysterPoBOy- pucker up brah!
Posted on 10/7/26 at 7:59 pm to PetroAg
quote:
Thought the same thing about cat 1 Beryl and two trees went through the house. Kingwood got wrecked and is pretty far inland. I wouldn’t underestimate it.
Hurricane Barrel was a prolific tornado producer, one of the top tornado producing hurricanes we've seen.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:01 pm to BluegrassCardinal
quote:
If forecast holds, what can they expect and would it be a good idea to go towards Jacksonville where her folks are?
Don’t really see flooding being an issue but a good chance they will be without power for a bit. If they have a place in Jax to stay and they don’t want to deal with no power and the usual hurricane food supply panic crowds they should leave ASAP.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:02 pm to cpp2208
Looks like a total bust for Nola
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:03 pm to deltaland
These hurricane threads deliver.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:04 pm to BluegrassCardinal
quote:
Anyone help with advice?
Our son and his family live on the west side of Pensacola, about 15 min from Perdido Key. He’s stationed at NAS Pensacola.
Looks like latest forecast brings the eye wall in over Perdido Key and W Pcola. 85/90 mph winds I saw. I would say they’re about 7-8 miles from the coast. They do have a small canal in their back yard so I worry about flooding.
If forecast holds, what can they expect and would it be a good idea to go towards Jacksonville where her folks are?
This isn't personal advice, just stuff that has been posted in this thread and forecasts out there. Whatever this ends up becoming and wherever it ends up making landfall (may not even landfall near Pensacola when the time actually comes), it's gonna be hauling arse north-northeast. Like to the point that it'll be through northern Alabama by Saturday afternoon.
It wont be a huge stalled out rainmaker and that far inland they won't have to worry about surge. Their biggest issue would be pine trees falling and power outages, and availability of essential things like gas/diesel. If they don't have any trees directly threatening their house and have a generator with a moderate amount of fuel stored, I wouldn't budge.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:07 pm to cpp2208
One model has a westerly track has it around Ocean Springs MS at landfall
Google AI bullish on Perdido Key FL
Google AI bullish on Perdido Key FL
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:07 pm to bamabenny
quote:
Sally sat down, there’s no indication this is doing anything similar.
Also, I was in Fairhope for Sally and it wasn’t that bad. Glad I packed an extra big cooler though.
Sally is the reason I'm terrified of storms now. I was renting a house in Mobile and I was sitting on the couch and walked to the back of the house. Five seconds later a giant oak tree came crashing down thru the roof and split the house in half pretty much. If I hadn't gotten up, I'd most likely be dead. Anyways, I'm hoping this thing goes east of us.
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:17 pm to NorthEndZone
Latest hurricane model runs (max winds and lowest pressure at model increment just before landfall)
HMON - 105 mph and 963 mb at 7 PM Friday - Ft. Walton / Destin (peak of 956 mb and 125 mph)
HAFS-A - 95 mph and 976 mb at 4 AM Saturday - Mobile Bay (peak of 969 mb and 130 mph)
HAFS-B - 72 mph and 985 mb at 4 AM Saturday - Dauphin Island (peak of 971 mb and 105 mph)
HWRF - 115 mph and 960 mb at 7 PM Friday - Gulf Shores (peak of 960 mb and 115 mph)
This is just one run and subject to change. Models are a bit stronger at landfall than previous run.
HWRF and HMON with an earlier landfall do not weaken the storm as much as the HAFS models.
HMON - 105 mph and 963 mb at 7 PM Friday - Ft. Walton / Destin (peak of 956 mb and 125 mph)
HAFS-A - 95 mph and 976 mb at 4 AM Saturday - Mobile Bay (peak of 969 mb and 130 mph)
HAFS-B - 72 mph and 985 mb at 4 AM Saturday - Dauphin Island (peak of 971 mb and 105 mph)
HWRF - 115 mph and 960 mb at 7 PM Friday - Gulf Shores (peak of 960 mb and 115 mph)
This is just one run and subject to change. Models are a bit stronger at landfall than previous run.
HWRF and HMON with an earlier landfall do not weaken the storm as much as the HAFS models.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:19 pm to RBTiger
quote:
One model has a westerly track has it around Ocean Springs MS at landfall
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:22 pm to RazorBroncs
I’m glad we decided to fly into DBA/spend the weekend there instead of PCB/Destin. Hard to believe we’re in October and this is the first one of any consequence in the lower 48.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:26 pm to shutterspeed
quote:
One model has a westerly track has it around Ocean Springs MS at landfall
Id still be west but maaaaaaan that would suck more than oysterpoboy
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:29 pm to MSUDawg98
Typical of an El Nino year
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:37 pm to RBTiger
Seems the latest model runs are pulling it back to the west.
Will be interesting to see how the next advisory looks.
Will be interesting to see how the next advisory looks.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:39 pm to gaetti15
Where ever the Weather Channel puts ole Jim cantore aka the Angel of Darkness is where the storm will go!
I remember for Ida once he showed up in Houma I knew we were screwed!
I remember for Ida once he showed up in Houma I knew we were screwed!
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Looks like we will have a hurricane with the 10pm update
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 8:42 pm to LSUDUCKMAN67
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