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re: Hurricane Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast

Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:28 pm to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
133419 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:28 pm to
That Ryan guy really seems to be cheering this on
Posted by MasterDigger
Member since Nov 2019
3367 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:29 pm to

You could try adding your list to the "Most beloved OTer" thread



Posted by farad
Member since Dec 2013
12841 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:30 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14773 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:31 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76978 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:33 pm to
See......shrimpy.
Posted by TheRouxGuru
Member since Nov 2019
14984 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

What makes "Isaias" not "normal"? Dude is an idiot


I’ve quite literally never heard of this dumbass name until this week. So yea, definitely not normal.

Sorry dude, it ain’t cool to be woke anymore
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14773 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:35 pm to
Your post is what made me take a look. Shrimpy is usually not good - if you don't want strengthening.

May be on its way to Cat 3 like the HMON, HAFS, HWRF models are showing.
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 8:36 pm
Posted by caill430
Da Dirty Dell
Member since Jul 2005
1508 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:35 pm to
The proliferation of weather weenies online make the waters murky.

OTB?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76978 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

May be on its way to Cat 3 like the HMON, HAFS, HWRF models are showing.

I believe it is. This is the best run it has made at closing off the core.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36542 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:40 pm to
Got that look.
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
21373 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

Why's that very last second of the satellite imagery look like it's about to blow tf up

Yep, I agree. He isn’t all that big, but he’s looking pretty damn good, and he isn’t even to the jet stream yet.

Imo some people are gonna wake up tomorrow to an oh shite moment.

That being said, every model out there makes it look like he hits a brick wall once he comes onshore, so the damage will be isolated, but whereever he lands is gonna make people wish they had left.

As someone pointed out on Storm2K, there are a lot of similarities to Opal in 1995 during the last Super Nino.



All just my opinion. I am not a weatherman and I have no expertise in the field
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
104787 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

Are you kidding me right now! Pensacola Beach, Florida…


Red sky at night, sailors delight


Red sky in morning sailors take warning
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
9386 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:49 pm to
Still remember OPAL well....dodged us here in SE LA with Cold Front deflecting it off to the East. But Fort Walton Beach hotels had a couple feet of sand in the floor rooms.

Thankfully ISAIAS not doing this in late August ...could have been an IVAN like event

WAFB said the back side of this forecast to bring 37mph wind gust here in BR LA from the North Saturday afternoon with the system passing way up across I-20 in MS/AL

Looked a little ragged on the edges ; but cranking up now
975 millibars most of the day...looking to see how much more it drops


This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 8:52 pm
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
21373 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:51 pm to
Josh is in Pensacola.. it’ll be within 30 miles of there either way, that guy doesn’t miss.

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Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14773 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:55 pm to
That's Josh, Cantore, and Timmer in Pensacola area. It won't be far from there.
Posted by holdmuh keystonelite
Member since Oct 2020
5411 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:59 pm to
It's going to overcome some sheer with this blowup.
Posted by Large Farva
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2013
8758 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 8:59 pm to
May be a dumb question but what effect/affect/impact does a weakening storm have on storm surge as the storm nears landfall?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21870 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 9:03 pm to
Isaias is probably having its best run so far, and there is no recon to be found
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76978 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 9:03 pm to
quote:

It's going to overcome some sheer with this blowup.

This is its best window for strengthening. It pulled away from the shear around the BoC/Yucatan and the trough over TX hasn't progressed quite enough yet to fully bother it. Unfortunately, it was able to organize and form a solid enough core to take advantage of this window.

This doesn't change the problems it should have with shear on final approach to landfall.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76978 posts
Posted on 10/8/26 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

Isaias is probably having its best run so far, and there is no recon to be found

Figures.
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