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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:43 pm to
Posted by WoWyHi
Member since Jul 2009
23339 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:43 pm to
quote:

I haven't seen a single model take it farthwe west than Key West, but you couldn't tell that based on this thread.

I understand people are gun shy, but there is no discernable threat to a state west of Florida at the moment. Hell, the Carolinas and Virginia have far more to worry about than Alabama, Mississippi, LA, etc.



It's because some irresponsible assholes keep posting the SHIM and SHEMALE models without explanation, letting people get worked up, and not explaining that it's shite.
Posted by Tesla
the Laurentian Abyss
Member since Dec 2011
9146 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:43 pm to


Push the nose over!!!
Posted by CarolinaGamecock99
Member since Apr 2015
24812 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:44 pm to
So there's another tropical storm behind Irma that will loop around and possibly hit Florida too
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16919 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:45 pm to
quote:



what storm is that? The date says 9/14????
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:45 pm to
mission 5... NOAA2... is low level recon
Posted by MarcusQuinn
Member since Aug 2005
582 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:46 pm to
Or may not. Let's speculate and be alarmist one storm at a time.
Posted by Rakim
Member since Nov 2015
9954 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

?@bhensonweather Current model consensus on Irma heading for Cuba, then turning NNW toward FL, isn't a particularly strange track--which adds to the concern
Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
23705 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

It's because some irresponsible assholes keep posting the SHIM and SHEMALE models without explanation, letting people get worked up, and not explaining that it's shite.


I think we're just a bit worried about this thing getting into the warm open Gulf and exploding out of control.
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
45871 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

exploding out of control.


Dude...it's a hurricane. That's kind of its thing.
Posted by WoWyHi
Member since Jul 2009
23339 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:49 pm to
I think we are all there, but that's not the point. People can't basically drop a one liner model without saying anything then sitting back and laughing at people freaking out. Most of those models being posted like that are unreliable shite models.
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14470 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:50 pm to
Can somebody explain why it's going to make a HARD right? Especially a hard right that keeps getting pushed farther and farther west?
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:51 pm to
18z GFS is running... running maybe a touch more north than recent runs
Posted by doya2
Charenton
Member since Jan 2005
8860 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:52 pm to
Link?
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:53 pm to
Posted by Nawlens Gator
louisiana
Member since Sep 2005
5959 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:54 pm to

What I see is the models keep moving the north turn to the west. Their prediction of a trough to cause this turn is not accurate. That's because these models aren't accurate enough to predict the trough location and strength. This turn to the north may never happen and this thing could hit land any where along the upper GOM.

Posted by Hangover Haven
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
33459 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:54 pm to
There's a front coming down..
Posted by CyrustheVirus
Member since Jan 2013
2909 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:55 pm to
quote:



It's because some irresponsible a-holes keep posting the SHIM and SHEMALE models without explanation, letting people get worked up, and not explaining that it's shite.




Yea, Rakim thinks it's going in thegulf so he keeps posting any random model to support that even though it's a shite model.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:55 pm to
A number of the models have a little shortwave trough sliding down into the SE about that time. The thinking is this erodes the high pressure steering Irma and opens up a north path along the western edge of the ridge. If that path is there, Irma will take it making a North path reasonable.

The problem? We're not sure it'll even exist or exactly when it slings down if it does.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:56 pm to
I'm watching it but I will wait for the 00Z runs tonight with the data in them for a better gauge of the situation.
Posted by blight
central
Member since Jul 2012
1036 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:58 pm to
great. the second storm is following irma. just f'ing great.
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