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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:43 pm to slackster
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:43 pm to slackster
quote:
I haven't seen a single model take it farthwe west than Key West, but you couldn't tell that based on this thread.
I understand people are gun shy, but there is no discernable threat to a state west of Florida at the moment. Hell, the Carolinas and Virginia have far more to worry about than Alabama, Mississippi, LA, etc.
It's because some irresponsible assholes keep posting the SHIM and SHEMALE models without explanation, letting people get worked up, and not explaining that it's shite.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:44 pm to WoWyHi
So there's another tropical storm behind Irma that will loop around and possibly hit Florida too
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:45 pm to Rakim
quote:what storm is that? The date says 9/14????
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:45 pm to Tesla
mission 5... NOAA2... is low level recon
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:46 pm to CarolinaGamecock99
Or may not. Let's speculate and be alarmist one storm at a time.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:46 pm to rt3
quote:
?@bhensonweather Current model consensus on Irma heading for Cuba, then turning NNW toward FL, isn't a particularly strange track--which adds to the concern
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:47 pm to WoWyHi
quote:
It's because some irresponsible assholes keep posting the SHIM and SHEMALE models without explanation, letting people get worked up, and not explaining that it's shite.
I think we're just a bit worried about this thing getting into the warm open Gulf and exploding out of control.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:48 pm to jdd48
quote:
exploding out of control.
Dude...it's a hurricane. That's kind of its thing.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:49 pm to jdd48
I think we are all there, but that's not the point. People can't basically drop a one liner model without saying anything then sitting back and laughing at people freaking out. Most of those models being posted like that are unreliable shite models.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:50 pm to WoWyHi
Can somebody explain why it's going to make a HARD right? Especially a hard right that keeps getting pushed farther and farther west?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:51 pm to tilco
18z GFS is running... running maybe a touch more north than recent runs
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:53 pm to doya2
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:54 pm to rt3
What I see is the models keep moving the north turn to the west. Their prediction of a trough to cause this turn is not accurate. That's because these models aren't accurate enough to predict the trough location and strength. This turn to the north may never happen and this thing could hit land any where along the upper GOM.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:55 pm to WoWyHi
quote:
It's because some irresponsible a-holes keep posting the SHIM and SHEMALE models without explanation, letting people get worked up, and not explaining that it's shite.
Yea, Rakim thinks it's going in thegulf so he keeps posting any random model to support that even though it's a shite model.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:55 pm to tilco
A number of the models have a little shortwave trough sliding down into the SE about that time. The thinking is this erodes the high pressure steering Irma and opens up a north path along the western edge of the ridge. If that path is there, Irma will take it making a North path reasonable.
The problem? We're not sure it'll even exist or exactly when it slings down if it does.
The problem? We're not sure it'll even exist or exactly when it slings down if it does.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:56 pm to rt3
I'm watching it but I will wait for the 00Z runs tonight with the data in them for a better gauge of the situation.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 4:58 pm to rt3
great. the second storm is following irma. just f'ing great.
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