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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:42 am to
Posted by Delacroix22
Member since Aug 2013
4537 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:42 am to
Wait so what is going on with this

Last I heard this was going to frick all of us

But then was modeled to swing out to the Atlantic and not other anybody.

But now that's changed?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:42 am to
Recon finding even lower pressures. Irma just doesn't stop.

Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40225 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:43 am to
Well that's what we did for Harvey .. got what we needed that we would NORMALLY need anyway and then watched and waited!
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
70989 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Wait so what is going on with this



If I understand correctly it's not making that turn as quickly as had been previously forecasted. Instead of turning Irma is continuing to jog to the west.
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Not Phillytiger9
Member since Dec 2015
11827 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:45 am to
946 is 2mb off of Cat 4
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21446 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:49 am to
12z early cycle models

Posted by Delacroix22
Member since Aug 2013
4537 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:52 am to
Wow I used to live in Miami

Looks like Irma is going to touch down at Miami and frick it up and just penetrate the whole state with her big schlong
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21446 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:54 am to
One of the interesting things has been the nearly constant ERCs that have been occurring in the core of Irma. Another one underway and the storm continues to strengthen.

Posted by USEyourCURDS
Member since Apr 2016
12911 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:54 am to
RA'd for sticky
Posted by saint tiger225
San Diego
Member since Jan 2011
48738 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:55 am to
So I'm guessing all the models are showing us getting that cold front before the storm can make it into the gulf?
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78299 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:55 am to
quote:

Miami


Such a big city. I wonder when they are going to consider an evacuation plan. Maybe tomorrow afternoon?
Posted by saint tiger225
San Diego
Member since Jan 2011
48738 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:56 am to
Excuse my ignorance, but what are ERCs?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102447 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:56 am to



Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
70989 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:57 am to
It just keeps moving closer and closer to the Gulf. I'm not liking this set up. Not liking it at all.

Posted by tankyank13
NOLA
Member since Nov 2012
8289 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:57 am to
Question for the experts. How tall are the cloud tops on a cat 5 hurricane? Just curious
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:57 am to
I obviously don't know enough about this stuff. Seems like a turn that sharp to the North or North East would also mean it has something pushing it, or pulling it. And if that's the case then don't trype of sheer or other effects would occur that would start to compete and weaken Irma
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 9:01 am
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40225 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:58 am to
ERC =eyewall replacement cycle. More than that I can't explain.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166631 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:58 am to
quote:


how accurate are the two black lines going up to the Carolinas? can you now safely say that most models are hating on Miami up?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 8:59 am to
quote:

Excuse my ignorance, but what are ERCs?



Eyewall Replacement Cycles. They usually happen with major hurricanes, where a storm forms an outer eyewall that moves in and replaces the inner eyewall. It's a sign of strength.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:00 am to
quote:

how accurate are the two black lines going up to the Carolinas? can you now safely say that most models are hating on Miami up?



Are you talking about the gray lines? TVCN? If so, that is the consensus model of most of the models, this is the path the NHC usually follows with the official forecast.
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