re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

GFS looks like the EURO a bit.

quote:

---

Is this not what the EURO forcasted? Grazing Cuba and restrengthening going north?

---

Basically.

I think the little wobble to the south and slowing down a little is due to Irma trying to blow up while feeling the friction of the Cuban coast. Super dynamic situation that's hard to account for. The movement should normalize back W to WNW over the course of the overnight, basically following the NHC/Euro path over the long run tonight.

Sucks that your username will be irrelevant in two weeks

quote:

---

Cuba's higher elevation is down at the east end of the island. It's pretty flat the whole way Irma is traveling. But Cuba knocked Gustav down pretty good and Gustav wasn't over Cuba long at all but never recovered.

---

Hurricane Sandy crossed Jamaica and then the eastern part of Cuba. The winds went from 110 mph to 105 mph.

First bands rolling into Miami soon.

quote:

---

First bands rolling into Miami soon.

---

If you look at the JP video I posted the winds are already kicking up in South Beach.

quote:

---

Why do some of you dumb motherfrickers not understand the concept of a cone?? A model run is a model run and there are several of them each day. If the center of the cone was a certainty they would need a CONE

---

You need to settle down

Bob must read TD LOL

From Bob Breck

Friday, September 8, 2017

Irma Throwing Models a Curve?

As I await the 10 pm update from NHC, this is wat I’m seeing tonight. Satellite loops are showing nearly half of Irma’s circulation is now over Cuba. Although the north side of Cuba doesn’t have any high mountains, it appears being over land is starting to disrupt & weaken the circulation a little. The center (eye) of Irma continues to churn to the west and, perhaps slightly south of due west. That is not what the models were forecasting. 90% of them kept Irma’s center over the Florida Straits and that was why NHC didn’t weaken her. But what now? What if the center stays inland over Cuba all night emerging near Havana before making the turn to the north? Even more goofy, what if Irma doesn’t make the turn and keeps heading to the west? Believe me, I trust the Hurricane Specialists at NHC. Most have M.S. or PhD’s and are way smarter than me. However, they have been brought up on the motto to obey the models until it becomes obvious that they are wrong. I’m just telling you what I’m seeing on the satellite loop. Frankly, the farther to the west Irma stays and the longer before she makes her turn (if she ever does) is better for Florida. However we don’t want Irma to get to 90 west longitude before making the turn as that would extend her impact closer to us. None of the models show that happening. Another question…what if Irma never makes the northward turn but goes WSW across Cuba into the western Caribbean? UNCERTAINTY. That’s what I feel NHC & the media are not pointing out. With the number of people at risk and models indicating the turn, you have to error on the side of caution. This is a difficult call for emergency managers whose job is to protect lives. It reminds me of Ivan barreling towards SE LA. Back in 2004. Evacuations were ordered here but the storm turned at the last minute and slammed into the east side of Mobile Bay battering Gulf Shores with some incredible damage. I really hope Irma makes the turn soon, because if she doesn’t, many people who evacuated & have been stressed out will never do that again. I’ll be back with my thoughts after NHC comes out with their next update within the hour. I don’t want to go into potential impacts because there is so much UNCERTAINTY. Stay tuned! Bob Breck