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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:26 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:26 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
I see the euro projects some significant interaction with Cuba now. Does that create more variance/effect the accuracy of the models?
Do the models do as good of a job predicting when there is significant land interaction as opposed to purely on water or moving over smaller/flatter islands or will that cause problems?
I asked way earlier in this thread but did not get a response.
1
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:26 pm to LSUJuice
I don't know. I'm trying to figure out. Seems like we're freaking out more than they are. My wife said her aunt acted like she was crazy for calling about it 
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:27 pm to Festus
shite. Just like I was afraid of, it might be too late.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:27 pm to BayouBengals18
quote:
They should watch the news but this storm is going nowhere near Venice, LA
You don't know that.
Sure, we don't know that for sure, but it would take a catastrophic forecasting error for Louisiana to be impacted by Irma at this point.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:27 pm to Tiger985
quote:
In general I agree with you but the 11am Friday and 11pm Friday forecast tracks make his point much better.
I'm too lazy to post for you but at 11am Friday New Orleans East was barely in the cone, most of the metro area was not. By 11pm, the metro area was in the bullseye, dead center of come
Most didn't see that until Saturday and even then, if wasn't predicted to be the Cat 5 that it turned into
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:27 pm to TH03
quote:
Looks like they're going to take a direct hit.
Shep, the black bear poof just said it is going between Lakeland and Disney. While in the cone, that is not what the black line in the middle says.
He didn't threaten my children yet.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:27 pm to TH03
quote:
They have a lifetime buddy pass and she is a flight scheduling genius
But can they do it for cheap? It's $99 a piece for 2 people on tonight's TPA-DFW flight leaving at 7:10pm. It's a good option for anyone still in Tampa
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:28 pm to Bunk Moreland
"Sorry folks, the park's closed. The Cat 4 hurricane out front shoulda told ya"
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:28 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
CuseTiger
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm to NOFOX
quote:
I see the euro projects some significant interaction with Cuba now. Does that create more variance/effect the accuracy of the models? Do the models do as good of a job predicting when there is significant land interaction as opposed to purely on water or moving over smaller/flatter islands or will that cause problems? I asked way earlier in this thread but did not get a response.
Hopefully rds will respond, but in my experience the global models struggle with intensity forecasts, particularly on land. The NHC will take land interaction into account in their forecast and attempt to correct any illogical outputs from the models.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm to slackster
quote:In this day and age people would be suing the NHC and probably winning
Sure, we don't know that for sure, but it would take a catastrophic forecasting error for Louisiana to be impacted by Irma at this point.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm to Festus
Parents house just went under mandatory evacuation in Fort Myers. They are near John Morris and McGregor, for those familiar. They aren't down there but scary stuff indeed.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm to TheFonz
quote:
Florida suspending liquor and beer sales as of tonight.
Well if that isn't a reason to evacuate then I don't know what is
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
CuseTiger
Always the man.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:29 pm to CuseTiger
It's usually around 50 bucks or so. It's like 120 for me because I'm not blood family.
I'll let them know about that flight though. Thanks, cuse. What airline?
I'll let them know about that flight though. Thanks, cuse. What airline?
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:30 pm to LSUGrad9295
I'm going to need plastic surgery to remove the goddamn smile from my face once this storm is gone.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:31 pm to TH03
Gas buddy (you have to big time zoom in to see where there is gas) showed a station in Cocoa Bch as an example....that just got filled and open for business. Check gas buddy.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:32 pm to slackster
quote:
Hopefully rds will respond, but in my experience the global models struggle with intensity forecasts, particularly on land. The NHC will take land interaction into account in their forecast and attempt to correct any illogical outputs from the models.
Is it just intensity or does the land interaction affect the models' predicted speed/motion as well? I ask because it seems that it has been suggested here multiple times that the timing of certain fronts is critical to the utlimate direction of this storm.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:32 pm to cajunangelle
Posted on 9/8/17 at 2:32 pm to TH03
They really should be ok during the storm since they're inland. It will just suck afterwards. Does the assisted living have a generator?
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 2:35 pm
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