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Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:11 am to Duke
I fear that she might have had her ERC at the best time for her, but worst for FL. If she now has time to get her shite back together and run over the Gulf Straight, then she might be a 5 at landfall.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:12 am to supadave3
quote:
Remember back in the day when everyone had a Hurricane tracking chart from WAFB and the coordinates were issued every couple of hours so you could draw your little dot on the grid?
We used to put on a weekly TV show for the rest of our elementary school when I was in 4th grade. I volunteered to do the weather segment during hurricane season. We had a wall-sized chart of the north Atlantic, and I'd draw any current storms and plot them with updated coordinates. After a few weeks, I decided to start doing my own storm forecast, and that's when shite hit the fan. I wish-casted a storm right through our hometown while it was still like 10 days out and not even in the GOM. Kids went home panicked and shite and they cut my segment for the rest of the year.
CSB, I know.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:13 am to slackster
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:14 am to RummelTiger
Irma definitely has a strong possibility now of intensifying some more or at least maintaining its current speed.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:14 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Meanwhile the weather channel hurricane expert says the only ones who need to evacuate are the ones in surge zones.
Those are the only people with mandatory evacuations. Most of the people leaving Florida are leaving due to the inconvenience the storm creates after the fact. Staying won't kill the vast majority of people outside of surge areas, but your life will suck for a while nonetheless.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:15 am to RummelTiger
Me too Rummy. The available heat increases and increases on the approach. There might be another one in the cards near landfall, at least that's what I hope. There's not much else obvious to not have a massive Cat 5 bearing down on South Florida on Sunday.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:17 am to lsuman25
That's Big Ambergris Cay that's in the eye of Irma in that photo...about 400 people/tourists live/visit there at any given time.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:19 am to slackster
Granted, but does camping by the side of the road in BFE because you ran out of gas qualify as an improvement?
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:20 am to rds dc
We now have 87 hurricane geeks who are weather experts. Personally, I enjoy watching the forecasts. You don't know. The people who do this for a living don't really know, even now. I remember the old days, when many thought Harvey posed no serious threat to Houston.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:20 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Granted, but does camping by the side of the road in BFE because you ran out of gas qualify as an improvement?
No, no that's not an improvement.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:21 am to Duke
quote:Is there a count on the number of eye wall replacement cycles she's been through and the timings in-between? Might be interesting data to determine the chance this occurs before landfall.
The available heat increases and increases on the approach. There might be another one in the cards near landfall, at least that's what I hope. There's not much else obvious to not have a massive Cat 5 bearing down on South Florida on Sunday.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:22 am to Duke
AF309 dropped a 5th dropsonde in the eye
movement from the 4th... 0.0 N 0.2 W (~50 min between drops)
overall movement during mission... +0.4 N +1.5 W (~5 hr 30 min)
pressure 925 mb (up 1 mb from less than an hour ago)
movement from the 4th... 0.0 N 0.2 W (~50 min between drops)
overall movement during mission... +0.4 N +1.5 W (~5 hr 30 min)
pressure 925 mb (up 1 mb from less than an hour ago)
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:26 am to HubbaBubba
No official count but people on Wunderground has a running count of 8.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:26 am to rt3
Do they have an early morning recon planned? 4-5 am central.
Hope they sample the shite out of her about that time, because that should be about the point the inner eyewall is totally dead and the likely strengthening phase that will follow it.
Hope they sample the shite out of her about that time, because that should be about the point the inner eyewall is totally dead and the likely strengthening phase that will follow it.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:26 am to HubbaBubba
quote:Two or three. They last 1-2 days to wrap up. She's been dealing with this one for over 24 hours.
Is there a count on the number of eye wall replacement cycles she's been through and the timings in-between? Might be interesting data to determine the chance this occurs before landfall.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:27 am to BillF
quote:
You don't know. The people who do this for a living don't really know,
lulz... You posted that to the wrong person.
Me, sure, guilty as charged. But not him...
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:27 am to LSUGrrrl
quote:
No official count but people on Wunderground has a running count of 8.
8 seems pretty hard to believe, but maybe so.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:39 am to slackster
quote:
8 seems pretty hard to believe, but maybe so.
it does but this thing has been trucking at cat 5 for ~2.5 days, cat 1-4 longer than that so 8 while high, is pretty reasonable i'd think. None the less this storm is gonna be a hell of an interesting research project for years to come.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 12:41 am
Posted on 9/8/17 at 12:43 am to GeauxTigers2525
Euro is starting
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