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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Iota - No Más! No Más! - Gulf Finally Closed?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:41 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:41 pm to LegendInMyMind
What site is that image from?
1
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:49 pm to rds dc
@Minghao_Zhou
quote:
Plus I believe ADT has basin-specific adjustments which gives #Eta very high Raw T# due to CDG ring (<-81?), since NATL has lower tropopause & warmer cloud top temps climatologically. But a CDG ring is a CDG ring, and that's impressive anywhere in world! Eye temp was weakness.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:49 pm to rds dc
Eye is only 7 miles wide - and that temperature contrast - wow
691
URNT12 KNHC 030242
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL292020
A. 03/02:16:00Z
B. 14.10 deg N 082.55 deg W
C. 700 mb 2469 m
D. 928 mb
E. 090 deg 17 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 124 kt
I. 346 deg 3 nm 02:15:00Z
J. 076 deg 123 kt
K. 352 deg 5 nm 02:14:30Z
L. 130 kt
M. 190 deg 4 nm 02:17:30Z
N. 280 deg 137 kt
O. 193 deg 5 nm 02:18:00Z
P. 10 C / 3051 m
Q. 21 C / 2995 m
R. -4 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF304 0429A ETA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT 193 / 5 NM 02:18:00Z
;
691
URNT12 KNHC 030242
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL292020
A. 03/02:16:00Z
B. 14.10 deg N 082.55 deg W
C. 700 mb 2469 m
D. 928 mb
E. 090 deg 17 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 124 kt
I. 346 deg 3 nm 02:15:00Z
J. 076 deg 123 kt
K. 352 deg 5 nm 02:14:30Z
L. 130 kt
M. 190 deg 4 nm 02:17:30Z
N. 280 deg 137 kt
O. 193 deg 5 nm 02:18:00Z
P. 10 C / 3051 m
Q. 21 C / 2995 m
R. -4 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF304 0429A ETA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT 193 / 5 NM 02:18:00Z
;
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:50 pm to loogaroo
quote:
What site is that image from?
The guy who posted it in Jack Sillin's Twitter thread said GrEarth. I haven't looked further into it.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:54 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:”Sir, this is a Wendy’s...”
Plus I believe ADT has basin-specific adjustments which gives #Eta very high Raw T# due to CDG ring (<-81?), since NATL has lower tropopause & warmer cloud top temps climatologically. But a CDG ring is a CDG ring, and that's impressive anywhere in world! Eye temp was weakness.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:55 pm to Cosmo
Okay stupid question - but why can’t it bury itself in Central America and die?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 8:59 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
I thought someone said the plane had to head back, thus no pass through.
There aren’t many questions in these threads where I won’t at least pretend like I know the answer, so bookmark this post...
It seems like recon missions get sidetracked damn near every other mission - is that because the danger of the situation (I feel like I’ve read it’s quite safe in general), the relatively unimportant nature (I know they will abort for search and rescue, for example), some combination of the two, or something else entirely?
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:00 pm to ForeverEllisHugh
quote:
why can’t it bury itself in Central America and die?
Because all the advertising money is in the US.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Plus I believe ADT has basin-specific adjustments which gives #Eta very high Raw T# due to CDG ring (<-81?), since NATL has lower tropopause & warmer cloud top temps climatologically. But a CDG ring is a CDG ring, and that's impressive anywhere in world! Eye temp was weakness.
I get what they are saying but the satellite presentation was elite and up there with Wilma. There are still things we don't understand and sub-930 is still balls out.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:05 pm to Capt ST
quote:
There’s going to a be a lot of live lost down there with this storm. You can take out half a village with rotor wash down there.
I hate to laugh but GD this caught me off guard.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:11 pm to slackster
quote:
It seems like recon missions get sidetracked damn near every other mission - is that because the danger of the situation (I feel like I’ve read it’s quite safe in general), the relatively unimportant nature (I know they will abort for search and rescue, for example), some combination of the two, or something else entirely?
Today, two different planes turned back before reaching the storm due to mechanical issues.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 9:17 pm to rds dc
quote:
But a CDG ring is a CDG ring
So a Cold Dark Grey ring is really rare for an Atlantic basin tropical system, correct?
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:01 pm to BigBrod81
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:12 pm to questionable
After it turns NE towards Cuba then another system spawns off it and heads west. looks like it then gets sucked up straight in SW LA. yeah, that model is drunk.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 11:14 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:14 pm to questionable
Our first Election Day GFS is too much. Brings Eta into Lake Charles nearly 15 days from now.
Silver lining is it’s just a weak TS.
Silver lining is it’s just a weak TS.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:15 pm to slackster
quote:
Our first Election Day GFS is too much. Brings Eta into Lake Charles nearly 15 days from now.
With all the things trying to steer Eta going forward, the model runs are going to get weird. Can't wait.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:25 pm to slackster
quote:
Brings Eta into Lake Charles nearly 15 days from now.
You do realize how ridiculously rare this would be? And at 380 hours out, it might as well show a landfall in Canada.
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:26 pm to Oates Mustache
I always enjoy seeing the models spin up hurricanes in the midwest when fronts are coming through. Basically spinning up the true doomsday tornadoes that are a few hundred miles wide.
This post was edited on 11/2/20 at 11:27 pm
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:27 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
You do realize how ridiculously rare this would be? And at 380 hours out, it might as well show a landfall in Canada.
I mean... we have had a landfall in Canada once this year already
Posted on 11/2/20 at 11:53 pm to Duke
quote:
With all the things trying to steer Eta going forward, the model runs are going to get weird. Can't wait.
I would want no part of forecasting this one. Anyone throwing out anything close to a forecast for a US landfall anytime soon should be ignored.
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