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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:07 pm to
Posted by Hog cracklin
Member since Aug 2018
321 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:07 pm to
Would be interesting to see a replay after all is said and done with all models predictions after every storm
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 11:08 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

We look at everything and that has never come up Also, I've never seen it mentioned in a NHC discussion. Same goes for the German ICON model.



, it seems reasonable enough with the track, but the wind speeds are crazy high.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102604 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

Does it look like the the storm might be starting to look better in the last few frames? Looks like the dry air is not there .


The eye does seem to look a little better.



Looks the shear has shifted to being more to the southeast as the storm moves NW and the eye is pulling away from it and the ULL moves south. If she is going to strengthen it will be tonight/tomorrow morning. I think she maintains current intensity, maybe gets back to Cat 3 barely based on NHC forecast. Just my opinion
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:14 pm to
quote:

Would be interesting to see a replay after all is said and done with all models predictions after every storm



By and large, the NHC 5 day forecast is the best. There are a few times when the Euro beats it though.

ETA - there are some consensus models that beat the NHC, but they don't do so consistently season to season.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 11:41 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:19 pm to
1006 mb in the eye of Isaac on the 3rd pass
Posted by Hog cracklin
Member since Aug 2018
321 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:33 pm to
Looks to be moving a bit more NW than projected?
Posted by Tigerbait337
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2008
20535 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:34 pm to
Wait... didn’t we have a hurricane named Isaac in 2012??

Are they reusing names now?
Posted by momentoftruth87
Your mom
Member since Oct 2013
86110 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:36 pm to
Storm moving into NC Coast. 2 hr difference between pictures.

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

Wait... didn’t we have a hurricane named Isaac in 2012??

Are they reusing names now?

names are on a 6 year rotation

and 2012 Isaac wasn't deemed destructive enough to merit name retirement
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:41 pm to
the eye of Florence is damn near due north of the last eye fix it appears


This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 11:42 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

Looks to be moving a bit more NW than projected?




It's supposed to start a more western track soon.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:42 pm to
quote:

the eye of Florence is damn near due north of the last eye fix it appears



I think that cloud cover is misleading about the actual center location. We'll see soon enough.
Posted by Hog cracklin
Member since Aug 2018
321 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:44 pm to
and the track shifts again..
Posted by momentoftruth87
Your mom
Member since Oct 2013
86110 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:45 pm to
Have been seeing reports of looting in Jacksonville already :(. Saw a close friend say that a neighbor called him & just saw a post saying multiple cops reporting down Western (Main strip in Jacksonville)
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:51 pm to
quote:

I think that cloud cover is misleading about the actual center location. We'll see soon enough.

looks like you'll be right... seems the plane found what it was looking for around where it should be if it had remained on its course (instead of the north jump like I thought I saw) and is heading to its next drop point
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:53 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:53 pm to
quote:

looks like you'll be right... seems the plane found what it was looking for around where it should be if it had remained on its course (instead of the north jump like I thought I saw) and is heading to its next drop point



Sometimes those maps are a little goofy with the overlays too.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:56 pm to
quote:

Link to NC radar to watch her approach

welp... there goes my desire to be productive for the next few days
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 11:58 pm to


00z NAM rainfall through next 60 hours. A few 32"+ totals NW of Wilmington.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 9/13/18 at 12:02 am to
31 inches in 2.5 days? Damn.
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