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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:03 pm to deltaland
quote:
Let’s say this when it actually misses land. It’s no guarantee the models are correct and a storm this large just missing the turn north by 50 miles can make or break
It won't "miss the turn." If the turn never happens, it's because the opportunity to go north was never there. It's not trying to speed up and find some gap. The fact that it's slowing down tells you the ridge is eroding and the opportunity to go north is on the way. Pegging the exact time is difficult, but the slow forward speed means he's not gaining much longitude while waiting.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:04 pm to Icansee4miles
quote:
I wish CNN would have sent several of their on-air hosts instead.
Don Lemon would sing like a coke bottle if he turned his back to that wind.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:04 pm to fishfighter
The Bahamas are just getting hammered. This thing is moving so slow that some of these islands has remained in or near the eyewall most of the day.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:05 pm to Icansee4miles
He appears to not be busy.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 6:09 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:08 pm to slackster
914 mb extrap on first pass.
One thing to note, there isn't a double wind maxima in the data thus far. So doesn't appear an ERC is starting.
One thing to note, there isn't a double wind maxima in the data thus far. So doesn't appear an ERC is starting.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:10 pm to Duke
quote:
914 mb extrap on first pass.
W/ 21 kt wind too.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:10 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Btw, it’s safe to say the name Dorian is headed to retirement. Just stating the obvious.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:10 pm to Duke
quote:
most of south Florida isn't all that concerned. Says a lot about the how far we've come in terms of forecasting.
Indeed. Couldn’t find a parking spot at the beach tonight. Tons of windsurfers, and people just enjoying a nice night before Juno beach probably needs to be dredged again.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:10 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Ok the eyewall —- we went out in the eye during Hurricane Lili. It was eery and calm. We just went out on the yard to check damage to that point — though my moms neighbors were chainsawing trees from the road (squirrel season was two days later).
So my question is being in the eye itself isn’t bad is it? I mean you know the other side is coming for you and that’s the dangerous part, correct?
Don’t mean to sound dumb just trying to learn.
So my question is being in the eye itself isn’t bad is it? I mean you know the other side is coming for you and that’s the dangerous part, correct?
Don’t mean to sound dumb just trying to learn.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 8:55 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:12 pm to slackster
quote:
It won't "miss the turn."
He didn’t say it would miss the turn completely. He said if it misses by 50 miles it could be a different ballgame.
Man this thread is full of smart arse know-it-alls.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:12 pm to tiger91
quote:
Ok the eyeball —- we went out in the eye during Hurricane Lili. It was eery and calm. We just went out on the yard to check damage to that point — though my moms neighbors were chainsawing trees from the road (squirrel season was two days later).
So my question is being in the eye itself isn’t bad is it? I mean you know the other side is coming for you and that’s the dangerous part, correct?
Don’t mean to sound dumb just trying to learn.
Being in the eye is fine. It's getting in and out that suck.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:12 pm to tiger91
quote:
So my question is being in the eye itself isn’t bad is it? I mean you know the other side is coming for you and that’s the dangerous part, correct?
Yeah, the eye is pretty calm. It's not a good idea to go out into it because it's not easy to tell when the backside is actually going to get back. And you know, one generally wants to be inside before the onset of 100+ mph winds.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:13 pm to Duke
Eric Blake ?? @EricBlake12
·
10m
Bahamas radar is pretty definitive now that #Dorian has started an eyewall replacement cycle. While it should eventually lower the maximum winds, it also usually causes a bigger hurricane afterward. Even if the category goes down, the hazards can stay the same or worse!
Blake disagrees with you.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:13 pm to slackster
Can a storm of this magnitude defy conventional wisdom - forecasting - and chart it's own or is it prone to follow the lead of nature, period?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:15 pm to BuckeyeFan87
quote:
He didn’t say it would miss the turn completely. He said if it misses by 50 miles it could be a different ballgame.
I read it incorrectly, my apologies. There have been plenty here who have suggested it will miss it altogether.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:16 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Blake disagrees with you.
He knows more than me, so I'd trust his opinion a whole lot more.
All I was noting was the recon data didn't show the signs of a ERC starting yet.
ETA: That pass would have missed it. If there, it should show up in the SE pass they are currently doing.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:16 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Bahamas radar is pretty definitive now that #Dorian has started an eyewall replacement cycle. While it should eventually lower the maximum winds, it also usually causes a bigger hurricane afterward. Even if the category goes down, the hazards can stay the same or worse!
It's in its infancy then, because it doesn't appear to be closed off based on the recon pass from the NW, and the radar supports that.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:16 pm to Duke
Oh I know, you're one of the good ones in here that I would trust just messing with you. 
Posted on 9/1/19 at 6:16 pm to slackster
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