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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:13 am to otowntiger
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:13 am to otowntiger
quote:
whatever weather we get here in Orlando will be this Saturday night/Sunday. The week of the 8th should be fine unless of course we are hit really really hard (unexpectedly) and you have power/transportation/debris issues to deal with. But frankly even if that's the case Disney is such a well oiled machine they will have the place up and running the next day. All power is underground and they generate their own anyway, so if you are staying on site that wouldn't be a problem regardless.
I'm imagining the optics of a Katrina like situation in central Florida with devastation everywhere and the Magic Kingdom conducting business as usual.
1
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:14 am to otowntiger
12Z ICON - Cat 2 entering Gulf moving westward through Straits
12Z UKMET- CAT 2 near Miami entering Gulf moving southwestward
12Z GFS - Cat 1/2 landfall around Melbourne, FL
12Z UKMET- CAT 2 near Miami entering Gulf moving southwestward
12Z GFS - Cat 1/2 landfall around Melbourne, FL
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:16 am to lsugolfredman
gonna go ahead and gas up generator just in case. if it hits near orlando that will still knock power out here.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:29 am to Duke
quote:
Guess the upper low brigade played nice
Yea, on this run. Models struggle with ULLs and it's just as likely the next run will have a weak system. However, there is certainly potential for some significant strengthening, if the system makes it past the Islands. So far, 12z Icon and UK are pretty far south and the GFS is a good bit farther north.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:30 am to rds dc
Was going to Bahamas on Friday - Monday. Guessing I should go ahead and cancel that? I have until tonight to cancel with no penalties.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:32 am to lsugolfredman
Entering the gulf as a Cat 2 would be worrisome as it would have plenty time to get stronger
Posted on 8/27/19 at 11:44 am to Jim Rockford
quote:lol, yep- that’s pretty how it’d be.
Message
Hurricane Season - TS Dorian - Get the Nukes Ready? by Jim Rockford
quote:
whatever weather we get here in Orlando will be this Saturday night/Sunday. The week of the 8th should be fine unless of course we are hit really really hard (unexpectedly) and you have power/transportation/debris issues to deal with. But frankly even if that's the case Disney is such a well oiled machine they will have the place up and running the next day. All power is underground and they generate their own anyway, so if you are staying on site that wouldn't be a problem regardless.
I'm imagining the optics of a Katrina like situation in central Florida with devastation everywhere and the Magic Kingdom conducting business as usual.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 11:45 am
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:00 pm to rds dc
quote:
However, there is certainly potential for some significant strengthening, if the system makes it past the Islands
That's my takeaway. Not going to bet on models getting, what three ULL placements correct? Still note the potential and starting to look at the steering post island.
Still kind of skeptical it isn't a total mess on the other side of Hispaniola.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:21 pm to Duke
I tell ya what, wishcasters are latching on to the ICON cause it "did well with Barry" and is showing a cat 3 towards Louisiana.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:27 pm to GEAUXmedic
How is the 7 day setting for the east coast? Is there a big Bermuda High that’s going to build and sink to push it into the Gulf ?
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I tell ya what, wishcasters are latching on to the ICON cause it "did well with Barry" and is showing a cat 3 towards Louisiana.
Where?
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I tell ya what, wishcasters are latching on to the ICON cause it "did well with Barry" and is showing a cat 3 towards Louisiana
Did it? Honestly, never really look at it outside of just a cursory glance. Don't remember it doing anything special with Barry. I do know the UK was a joke with Barry.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:39 pm to whoa
quote:
Going to Disney the week of the 8th
Hope you made your FP for star wars.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:41 pm to michael corleone
quote:
Is there a big Bermuda High that’s going to build and sink to push it into the Gulf ?
There's some...let's say disagreement there.
The most recent GFS has this:
Outlined the 591 height line, drawing which way this would steer. That's a pretty "weak" bremuda high that puts it into Florida and it dies inland. Waiting to see the ensembles. And of course what the Euro wants to do.
The last run of the Euro would steer it in a similar way, but the ridge is stronger. Ends up a little south of Jacksonville anyway.
Now the ICON, which is showing a much farther west solution.
Ridge is much stronger, keeping it farther south and keeps it going west. Big difference compared to both the GFS and Euro.
*Duke speculates now*
It looks to me the EURO/GFS have a little shortwave over the eastern US erode the ridge a little bit, allowing a more NW path vs the ICON. Professional eyes would be best to explain it though.
I would lean with the GFS and EURO for now.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:45 pm to Duke
The GFS woke up the Carolinas wishcasters too. Preaching their "We're not trying to alarm you, but be prepared just in case" bullshite.
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:47 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Preaching their "We're not trying to alarm you, but be prepared just in case" bullshite.
shite, that's just one or two steps before "it's starting to get its shite together" and "RI is going to start in any minute."
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:48 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:49 pm to Duke
ICON can go frick a cactus
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:50 pm to Dlab2013
lmao trying to compare this storm to matthew are you kidding me? 
matthew being the "closest" to this storm seems irrelevant for what he was talking about there. historical tracks are fun to look at though. interesting to see how it played out.
matthew being the "closest" to this storm seems irrelevant for what he was talking about there. historical tracks are fun to look at though. interesting to see how it played out.
This post was edited on 8/27/19 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 8/27/19 at 12:51 pm to GEAUXmedic
Supposed to fly into Miami Friday night then drive down to Key West Saturday morning, think there's any chance I'm not screwed here?
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