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re: Here's why the country is freaking out and under virtual lock down - mathematical reason
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:12 am to SaintsandTigers
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:12 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
What about the simple thing of making 50% of our retarded nation take the flu vaccine?
How are people that are far these cancellations not outraged and protesting that daily?
can you clarify what you are trying to say here?
2
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:12 am to TH03
quote:
I don't think cancelling events that would essentially work as a hub and spoke system for this virus is a bad thing. I also don't think we need full scale doomsday bunkers with 6 months of food and supplies.
To me, we're cancelling big events and unnecessary events so we can keep restaurants and shops and workplaces open.
It sucks for people in the industries impacted, and we should be willing to bail them out (because they're taking hits for all of us). My hierarchy:
1) Low cost gatherings - business meetings and the like that don't have a direct impact on the economy if they're cancelled. These aren't huge, but there are probably thousands of 50-300 people gatherings like this that can be cancelled with minimal damage to the economy.
2) Schools. Most of these people are going to be paid regardless. There will be down the line impacts, but it won't be huge.
3) Major events. Houston Rodeo, etc. These will hurt the most and do the most damage, but to a narrow swath of people.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:13 am to Salmon
quote:
can you clarify what you are trying to say here?
I think he's asking if the people that support the big event cancellations melt about half the populations not getting flu shots
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:13 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
If the curve flattens in 2-3 weeks, and we still have no events and gatherings etc etc, will you start being upset?
If the steps we took to slow the spread work and we continue those steps, will I be upset?
I mean, dude, think about what you just asked.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:14 am to Street Hawk
quote:
Because they got the virus earlier and they fought it by locking down cities etc. to control the spread and got it under control, the result of which is the slowing rate of spread. It’s really not that hard to understand
Then put this in your post. You go thru all the trouble to provide the info, but leave this out and expect everyone would know since its "not that hard to understand"?
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:14 am to Pettifogger
quote:
So cancelling the Houston Rodeo and not letting a few hundred thousand fans watch basketball games, etc. isn't worth 20k lives?
Not really.
There are dumbasses up here who want to cancel the cruise season. By the time this thing has run its course it will damage the economy more than it will damage people.
If saving 20k lives was "worth" draconian measures, most food we eat, drinks we have would be banned and cars would be limited to 25mph.
Allowing people to self distance themselves is a better idea.
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 9:18 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:14 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
I think he's asking if the people that support the big event cancellations melt about half the populations not getting flu shots
oh ok
well then yeah, I think people that don't get the flu vaccine are morons
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:14 am to Pettifogger
quote:
So cancelling the Houston Rodeo and not letting a few hundred thousand fans watch basketball games, etc. isn't worth 20k lives?
No, not worth it. I pretty much fricking can't stand everybody anyway.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:15 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
I think he's asking if the people that support the big event cancellations melt about half the populations not getting flu shots
I for one shamed my wife for 2 years into finally getting flu shots.
We see thousands of people a day in our jobs. Tons of chances to get it or pass it to others who aren't able to get the vaccine.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:15 am to Big EZ Tiger
quote:
the death rate is estimated around 3.4% at the moment
Scientists believe that the rate is about 1%. The 3% and 4% numbers are stupidity on stilts. The actual rate can easily be estimated if we assume that all age groups are contracting the virus in equal percentages. Then we calculate the percentage of infected elderly who die from it. Knowing the percentage of elderly in the overall population, the rest is simple math.
I don't have this data, but plenty of scientists do, and they are estimating 1% fatality rate.
Now, if 25% of our population gets infected, and 1% die, that would be 875,000 deaths. And that's what we might see if we took zero steps to prevent the contagion.
This might seem like a big number, but considering that most of our politicians are elderly, I recommend we take no action.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:16 am to stout
quote:
Why did you leave out countries where the rate is slowing down?
China?
Sorry, but those tactics won't be used anywhere in the US.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:16 am to tgr4ever
quote:
You want to talk about 60 million people being essentially locked into their own homes?
You think thats gonna happen in the US, baw?
Maybe in places like NJ.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:18 am to Street Hawk
The most amazing thing to me is people trying to politicize this as an anti trump thing. Bizarre.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:18 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
If saving 20k lives was "worth" draconian measures, most food we eat, drinks we have would be banned and cars would be limited to 25mph.
I just think this is a bad comparison. Viruses allow little in the way of autonomy. There are some people who recklessly do shite and get sick, but not often.
There is also, as noted above, the concept that we're doing this so we don't have to do more at a later date. See: Italy.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:18 am to TheCaterpillar
Weird how the "nothingburger" crowd cites Chinese numbers declining after downplaying chinese numbers skyrocketing at the beginning of all this.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:19 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Not really.
There are dumbasses up here who want to cancel the cruise season. By the time this thing has run its course it will damage the economy more than it will damage people.
If saving 20k lives was "worth" draconian measures, most food we eat, drinks we have would be banned and cars would be limited to 25mph.
Allowing people to self distance themselves is a better idea.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:19 am to Salmon
quote:You think cancelling events and other measures that have very negative effects on the economy and jobs etc etc makes sense here because it may or may not be neccessary
can you clarify what you are trying to say here?
We have 50% of this nation that does not take a vaccine that we know helps prevent illnesses and death with a known deadly virus and I rarely see people protesting or losing their mind/caring. Where is the logic?
And the strange thing is, my personal anecdote, and my wifes who is a doctor, those most worried and in agreement with the cancellations dont have their flu vaccine
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 9:20 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:20 am to dagrippa
It’s like the F’n cold. Of course it’s going to spread. Do you know how many old people die yearly due to complications due to the common cold? Find that number for me.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:20 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
really.
There are dumbasses up here who want to cancel the cruise season. By the time this thing has run its course it will damage the economy more than it will damage people.
If saving 20k lives was "worth" draconian measures, most food we eat, drinks we have would be banned and cars would be limited to 25mph.
Allowing people to self distance themselves is a better idea.
boomers are spreading thier infections thoughts. everyone please ignore and stay safe lmao
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