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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:22 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:22 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
What is the peak forecasted winds then? These are the things I’m gonna change at the NHC
0
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:27 pm to Duke
That 72-hour forecast position is ~20 miles east of Tallahassee along US27 near Capps, FL which is ~23 miles from Apalachee Bay.
Landfall can thus be estimated at ~67-68 hours from now since the positions are starting from 00Z.
If that is the eventual track, Tallahassee could get the western eyewall depending on the width of the eye.
Landfall can thus be estimated at ~67-68 hours from now since the positions are starting from 00Z.
If that is the eventual track, Tallahassee could get the western eyewall depending on the width of the eye.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:32 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:28 pm to lsugolfredman
GFS intensity worth watching this run. Not for the number but for the trend relative to 18z and why...
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:30 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:31 pm to rds dc
quote:
wouldn't be surprised to see another step back at 00z. The hurricane models show convection building over the NHC 8 pm advisory LLC by 00z. However, convection is currently displaced to the east of the advisory LLC.
It looks like it’s building convection over the center now. A few hours behind schedule.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:31 pm to Duke
Once the models play out can you, or someone post it? Many people post “this model run is intense” then nothing else. Kind of leave us in the dark over here.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:32 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:37 pm to LPLGTiger
quote:
Once the models play out can you, or someone post it? Many people post “this model run is intense” then nothing else. Kind of leave us in the dark over here.
I’ll try if I’m up. I used to post them all the time but for whatever reason the direct links to Tropical Tidbits don’t load over here anymore.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:38 pm to LadyGatorAlberta
quote:
Lots of transplants freaking out because they’ve never been through a storm.
Didn’t they just have Sally a few years ago and Ivan in 2004, Dennis in 2005?
My have some people have forgotten or not lived through these systems. But then again, you said transplants, so some of these Yankees may not have even gotten acquainted to our hot and muggy summers.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:40 pm to LPLGTiger
I'm probably going to stay up for the GFS, and maybe take a peak at the cane models b4 bed.
I want to see size and yucatan interactions. I think those are the most interesting intensity questions left.
I want to see size and yucatan interactions. I think those are the most interesting intensity questions left.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:59 pm to slackster
GFS a little stronger and farther east on this one. Not to landfall yet but eh, pretty damn big too. Did miss the Yucatan.
Once again, winds are eastern loaded about mid-gulf. This sort of solution would put a lot of surge into Tampa.
Once again, winds are eastern loaded about mid-gulf. This sort of solution would put a lot of surge into Tampa.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:03 pm to Duke
That little westward shift it does around Cuba has seemed a little suspect to me, but it has held onto the idea for a while now.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 11:04 pm
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
Nothing like late night, FL threat and I have time to edit my thoughts.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:21 pm to Duke
quote:
GFS a little stronger and farther east on this one. Not to landfall yet but eh, pretty damn big too. Did miss the Yucatan.
It’s 1mb weaker than the 18z at landfall. You may have made this post earlier in the run though.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:22 pm to LPLGTiger
quote:
Once the models play out can you, or someone post it? Many people post “this model run is intense” then nothing else. Kind of leave us in the dark over here.
You can always do it yourself and not be left in the dark
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:27 pm to kc8876
The weather guys aren’t going to hump you, bro. At least I don’t think they will.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:29 pm to TheRouxGuru
quote:
The weather guys aren’t going to hump you, bro. At least I don’t think they will.
You just can’t help being a pussy constantly can you
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:47 pm to TheRouxGuru
quote:You're arguing with a bitter angry dick head. He's foul and contributes absolutely nothing, much like in his real life. He needs therapy.
The weather guys aren’t going to hump you, bro. At least I don’t think they will
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:25 am to ElJefe686
They got a Buckee's they'll be fine
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:30 am to Jake88
quote:
You're arguing with a bitter angry dick head. He's foul and contributes absolutely nothing, much like in his real life. He needs therapy.
Over/under how many stupid questions you ask in this thread?
Let’s set it at 50 and I’ll take the over
This post was edited on 9/24/24 at 12:31 am
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:54 am to slackster
Tropical models with a shift eastward and are also much stronger this run. Close enough to have some impact on Tampa - especially the coastal suburbs.
GFS - 967 MB
HWRF - 119 kts = 135 mph and 923 MB
HMON - 110 kts = 125 mph and 929 MB
HAFS-A - 117 kts = 135 mph and 936 MB
HAFS-B - 128 kts = 145 mph and 923 MB
GFS - 967 MB
HWRF - 119 kts = 135 mph and 923 MB
HMON - 110 kts = 125 mph and 929 MB
HAFS-A - 117 kts = 135 mph and 936 MB
HAFS-B - 128 kts = 145 mph and 923 MB
Posted on 9/24/24 at 12:59 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Katrina crossed it perpendicularly. This one, like Michael, will be running parallel with it almost all the way to landfall. It is part of the reason for the high ceiling.
Recall it well as I was involved in a project at the time measuring the Loop Current.
When the NHC abruptly shifted the track towards Nola, called my family from our home in Houston and had them head our way asap. They left Saturday morning, Katrina hit Monday.
Old graphic hard to read, Katrina's track over the LC was fairly lengthy.
[/img] First graphic below on Aug 25th and second on Sept 1st show Katrina's ocean water churn and cooling of sea surface temps, before and after.
As you say, this one is likely (unfortunately) to mimic a similar scenario.
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