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Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:22 am to Motorboat
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:22 am to Motorboat
quote:
$100k in damage?
I would rebuild. I live at my fishing camp (sold my home and moved to the camp) I build everything to begin with.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:26 am
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:29 am to Motorboat
quote:
What would you do if it was $100k in damage?
$100k wouldn’t even replace the outdoor setups in many areas.
You lose a roof on a $15M house in Rosemary and you’re talking millions in losses from water and wind damage alone.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:30 am to Armymann50
My in laws left yesterday for a weeklong cruise to Cozumel and Cayman. Im guessing they had no idea. I was going to let them find out
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:33 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:36 am to CarolinaGamecock99
Based on that run, Tampa looks to be the recipient of a direct strike from a 4 or 5.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:36 am to CarolinaGamecock99

This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:39 am
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:37 am to tide06
quote:
They’re making the GFS look conservative and they’re all looking at Thursday landfalls now.
I thought Thursday early afternoon had been the consensus all day Sunday?
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:37 am
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:39 am to CarolinaGamecock99
If it threads that needle it will be bad
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:41 am to Gene Heinous
quote:
Well, where is it? The last update was at 1AM (CDT) which is 5+ hours ago. I thought maybe the models were too out of control and they were afraid to post something that disjointed.
The NHC doesn’t issue advisories on invests unless they are a threat to land within 48 hours, in which case they’ll issue an advisory on a potential tropical cyclone.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:43 am to Armymann50
quote:
Ida came right over the top of my house as a cat 3 2,200 dollars damage would have been about two years of insurance payments the deductale would have cost more.
Where in Louisiana do you have $1,100 homeowners premiums? Damn.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:43 am to slackster
quote:
I thought Thursday early afternoon had been the consensus all day Sunday?
When they were first discussing this storm it was generally accepted it was going to float off towards Texas, then head NE and gain strength with a Saturday landfall somewhere.
I think the Thursday change while discussed here very early as a possibility was not the initial message people heard if they were paying attention early on.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:44 am to slackster
quote:
The NHC doesn’t issue advisories on invests unless they are a threat to land within 48 hours, in which case they’ll issue an advisory on a potential tropical cyclone.
But they usually update the cone and give an update on the outlook for the area of interest every 3 hours. The latest one came out at 7:32 AM (EDT).
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:44 am to slackster
quote:
Where in Louisiana do you have $1,100 homeowners premiums? Damn.
I assume he means pre Ida costs.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:47 am to Gene Heinous
quote:
But they usually update the cone and give an update on the outlook for the area of interest every 3 hours. The latest one came out at 7:32 AM (EDT).
Oh you’re talking about the tropical weather update. That’s not really a cone or anything but I get it.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:55 am to Armymann50
quote:
Ida came right over the top of my house as a cat 3 2,200 dollars damage would have been about two years of insurance payments the deductale would have cost more.
Self insurance has its limits, for single family nothing special 200k home that can be easily accomplished if you have the wealth and income, but a multi-million dollar home on the beach that has been multiplying in value compared to inflation. That maybe a tough rebuild being a self insured depending on the level of damage. It would just depend on income and what is saved up and access to extra cash without having to borrow money. Because the minute you mortgage or go the SBA route you are back in the insurance rat race.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:55 am to slackster
quote:
Oh you’re talking about the tropical weather update. That’s not really a cone or anything but I get it.
Yes, w/o getting bogged down in semantics, they are both 'cones' of probability relating where the system is expected to be several days out into the future.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:56 am
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:56 am to slackster
Fox 8 just said the GFS & Euro are like the WNBA, not worth watching. They’re already locked into the GRAF for this one.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:58 am to slackster
6z HMON takes it to a Category 4 story at 117kt in 72 hours.
6z HWRF does the same.
Both have landfall in Big Bend area.
HMON up to 119kt (Cat 4)
HAFS-A up to 137kt (Cat 5)
HAFS-B up to 140kt (Cat 5)
6z HWRF does the same.
Both have landfall in Big Bend area.
HMON up to 119kt (Cat 4)
HAFS-A up to 137kt (Cat 5)
HAFS-B up to 140kt (Cat 5)
Posted on 9/23/24 at 7:04 am to questionable
quote:
Fox 8 just said the GFS & Euro are like the WNBA, not worth watching. They’re already locked into the GRAF for this one.
What does the GRAF forecast?
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