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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:22 am to
Posted by Armymann50
Playing with my
Member since Sep 2011
22394 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:22 am to
quote:

$100k in damage?



I would rebuild. I live at my fishing camp (sold my home and moved to the camp) I build everything to begin with.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:26 am
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
23301 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:29 am to
quote:

What would you do if it was $100k in damage?

$100k wouldn’t even replace the outdoor setups in many areas.

You lose a roof on a $15M house in Rosemary and you’re talking millions in losses from water and wind damage alone.
Posted by dallastiger55
Jennings, LA
Member since Jan 2010
34199 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:30 am to
My in laws left yesterday for a weeklong cruise to Cozumel and Cayman. Im guessing they had no idea. I was going to let them find out
Posted by JS87
Member since Aug 2010
17703 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:36 am to
Based on that run, Tampa looks to be the recipient of a direct strike from a 4 or 5.
Posted by Gene Heinous
the Pleasure Dome
Member since Sep 2021
768 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:36 am to


This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:39 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:37 am to
quote:

They’re making the GFS look conservative and they’re all looking at Thursday landfalls now.


I thought Thursday early afternoon had been the consensus all day Sunday?
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:37 am
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30513 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:39 am to
If it threads that needle it will be bad
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:41 am to
quote:

Well, where is it? The last update was at 1AM (CDT) which is 5+ hours ago. I thought maybe the models were too out of control and they were afraid to post something that disjointed.


The NHC doesn’t issue advisories on invests unless they are a threat to land within 48 hours, in which case they’ll issue an advisory on a potential tropical cyclone.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:43 am to
quote:

Ida came right over the top of my house as a cat 3 2,200 dollars damage would have been about two years of insurance payments the deductale would have cost more.


Where in Louisiana do you have $1,100 homeowners premiums? Damn.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
23301 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:43 am to
quote:

I thought Thursday early afternoon had been the consensus all day Sunday?

When they were first discussing this storm it was generally accepted it was going to float off towards Texas, then head NE and gain strength with a Saturday landfall somewhere.

I think the Thursday change while discussed here very early as a possibility was not the initial message people heard if they were paying attention early on.
Posted by Gene Heinous
the Pleasure Dome
Member since Sep 2021
768 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:44 am to
quote:

The NHC doesn’t issue advisories on invests unless they are a threat to land within 48 hours, in which case they’ll issue an advisory on a potential tropical cyclone.


But they usually update the cone and give an update on the outlook for the area of interest every 3 hours. The latest one came out at 7:32 AM (EDT).
Posted by Saintsisit
Member since Jan 2013
5253 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:44 am to
quote:

Where in Louisiana do you have $1,100 homeowners premiums? Damn.


I assume he means pre Ida costs.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:45 am to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:47 am to
quote:

But they usually update the cone and give an update on the outlook for the area of interest every 3 hours. The latest one came out at 7:32 AM (EDT).


Oh you’re talking about the tropical weather update. That’s not really a cone or anything but I get it.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12663 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:55 am to
quote:

Ida came right over the top of my house as a cat 3 2,200 dollars damage would have been about two years of insurance payments the deductale would have cost more.


Self insurance has its limits, for single family nothing special 200k home that can be easily accomplished if you have the wealth and income, but a multi-million dollar home on the beach that has been multiplying in value compared to inflation. That maybe a tough rebuild being a self insured depending on the level of damage. It would just depend on income and what is saved up and access to extra cash without having to borrow money. Because the minute you mortgage or go the SBA route you are back in the insurance rat race.
Posted by Gene Heinous
the Pleasure Dome
Member since Sep 2021
768 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:55 am to
quote:

Oh you’re talking about the tropical weather update. That’s not really a cone or anything but I get it.


Yes, w/o getting bogged down in semantics, they are both 'cones' of probability relating where the system is expected to be several days out into the future.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:56 am
Posted by questionable
FL
Member since Apr 2008
1254 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:56 am to
Fox 8 just said the GFS & Euro are like the WNBA, not worth watching. They’re already locked into the GRAF for this one.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:58 am to
6z HMON takes it to a Category 4 story at 117kt in 72 hours.

6z HWRF does the same.

Both have landfall in Big Bend area.

HMON up to 119kt (Cat 4)

HAFS-A up to 137kt (Cat 5)

HAFS-B up to 140kt (Cat 5)

Posted by BayouENGR
Seagrove Beach
Member since Nov 2015
2915 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 7:04 am to
quote:

Fox 8 just said the GFS & Euro are like the WNBA, not worth watching. They’re already locked into the GRAF for this one.


What does the GRAF forecast?
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