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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:34 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:34 am to rds dc
quote:
This steady state/ slow strengthening phase will probably continue until the storm can wrap those intense thunderstorms around to the SW side (rotate convection upshear)
I am NOT saying this storm will be Michael but I remember a similar fight for him coming in. Until he closed off and went HAM.
1
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:34 am to NOSHAU
quote:
any actual storm updates?
Yes, looks like it's been getting strong AF over the last couple hours. Will that perfect eye ever come through..that is the question.
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 9:36 am
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:35 am to LSUcam7
Per recon in the storm right now, they haven't found hurricane winds in the NW quad.. but they did find Cat 2 winds almost 100 miles to the east of the eye.. strange storm.. the wind field is huge, it's just not concentrated.. and that actually might be worse..
Whoever said it reminded them of Ike.. that's looking like a great comp so far.. huge surge and a boatload of trees down all across the area..
Whoever said it reminded them of Ike.. that's looking like a great comp so far.. huge surge and a boatload of trees down all across the area..
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:35 am to rds dc
In the FWIW department, Zach plotted the NHC track line on this GEOS 16 image and noted that Helene is tracking parallel east of official. He cautioned that Sat images can be deceiving and don't account well for tilt, but went on to say that Recon is confirming what the sat image is showing.
He remarked that if valid and continuing through landfall, better news for Tallahassee area and worse for Tampa surge max.
YMMV
He remarked that if valid and continuing through landfall, better news for Tallahassee area and worse for Tampa surge max.
YMMV
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:36 am to Mr Breeze
quote:
NHC track line on this GEOS 16 image and noted that Helene is tracking parallel east of official
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:38 am to Chad504boy
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:39 am to Mr Breeze
So it's tracking more to the east than originally forecasted?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:39 am to NOSHAU
quote:
any actual storm updates?
we will know more here in about 20 mins
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 9:41 am
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:40 am to BigBro
The pressure is climbing? Thought it was 961 last time
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:40 am to ColoradoAg03
Think flights out of DFW will be delayed to Nashville tomorrow?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:40 am to RollTide1987
quote:
So it's tracking more to the east than originally forecasted?
Appears to be and recon is beginning to show it a little as well. Could just be a big wobble of course but wobbles make big differences when they occur this far in advance of landfall.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:41 am to RollTide1987
Still projected to make landfall near Apalachee Bay last I heard.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:41 am to BeachDude022
quote:
Think flights out of DFW will be delayed to Nashville tomorrow?
probably...depends on what happens to your incoming plane, Atlanta airport and weather in Nashville and what time you fly out
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:41 am to RollTide1987
quote:
So it's tracking more to the east than originally forecasted?
It has been for several hours now. 10am will be interesting to see if they move the landfall. The NHC never makes huge jumps, only small ones, but the window is closing quickly for landfall so who knows.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:43 am to IT_Dawg
quote:
probably...depends on what happens to your incoming plane, Atlanta airport and weather in Nashville and what time you fly out
We’re heading to a bachelor party…mine to be exact. Some guys leave at 8 am. I’m flying out at 5:45 pm. It’s hard to tell over 24 hours out but guys on the early flights are already in panic mode
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:44 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Could just be a big wobble of course
It's not. NDG on Storm2k has been plotting the course for about 8 hours and it's consistently east of the forecast points.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:45 am to LSUcam7
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:45 am to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
I stepped out for a little work and came back to chicks posting lingerie pics & some hard legging with offers to pay for nipples The feet people will be here in no time
Seems like the 12 hours before landfall is when people start posting cray.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:45 am to BeachDude022
quote:
It’s hard to tell over 24 hours out but guys on the early flights are already in panic mode
Whats their to panic about...drink at the airport until their flights take off. The bachelor flying out 10 hours later anyway
But good for you. Bachelor weekend in a rain soaked Nashville...them shirts will be see through and they will be ready to party
Posted on 9/26/24 at 9:46 am to Oates Mustache
Thats a big wobble. It definitely looks like a E jog now how long it lasts or if its a trend who knows but too much more and it will get a lot closer to Tampa, and that will sure affect the surge forecast for them.
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