re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

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I have a feeling I know why.

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* Formation chance through 48 hours... low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

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wife already sent me some shite from Facebook with a huge hurricane in the gulf. I sent her a link to this thread and said this is all you need.

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We come here to escape them and you fricking invite one here? What have you done?

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For what its worth the 12Z Euro has basically a tropical depression.

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The regular euro hasn’t been doing much of anything with this system in several runs. But the Euro AI has along with all other models. Kind of weird, the Euro used to be the best but it’s gotten out of whack lately it seems. It does ok with path but really misses on intensity particularly early on

Starts out young and innocent, goes through wild 20s, by time it reaches Louisiana it’s 35 and ready to settle down

The Euro has a system in the western gulf albeit weak. So there’s a big difference in strength but both the GFS and Euro show a western component for now.

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The Euro has a system in the western gulf albeit weak. So there’s a big difference in strength but both the GFS and Euro show a western component for now.

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The difference is all in where they consolidate vorticity out of the CAG. The regular Euro doesn't consolidate much, keeping it over the Yucatan. When it finally moves north it just gets swept up in the front. The others, EuroAI included, have the system get rolling earlier in the WCAB.

Nvm. Google told me.

Like wayyyyyyyy right so that it skirts Florida. I wanted a beach trip in two weeks .. can’t get there until then but I guess I’m not booking squat right now.

frick this shite with a giant dildo. Francine wasn’t even that bad for us but I can’t do another. I fricking hate hurricanes.