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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:33 am to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:33 am to
quote:

It appears that the models started backing down on this thing moving into southwest Louisiana next week. Is that the case?




I'm not sure where/how this keeps getting repeated, but it is simply not the case. The global models have suggested this will be a major issue for SWLA, at a minimum. The GFS is tons of rain, the Euro is rain and perhaps wind damage.
Posted by Placebeaux
Bobby Fischer Fan Club President
Member since Jun 2008
51852 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:34 am to
HMNI you so crazy
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:34 am to
quote:

You're talking about a 958mb storm and evacuations. Houston will not experience that pressure, nor a Category 4 wind speed. No reason to evacuate millions over something like this.


This isn't about the winds. This is about the rainfall.
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 7:35 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:34 am to
quote:

You're talking about a 958mb storm and evacuations. Houston will not experience that pressure, nor a Category 4 wind speed. No reason to evacuate millions over something like this.



Okay so what about the ~2ft of water?

OT Houston folks says it floods down there pretty easily.
Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8683 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:36 am to
Houston is not going to evacuate millions of people over rainfall and tropical storm force winds.
Posted by BigHoss
Offshore
Member since Apr 2010
3366 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:36 am to
You're an ignorant fool

Speaking in certainties during an event like this is mindlessly ignorant
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 7:38 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:37 am to
FWIW, this is the 7-day accumulated rainfall for the 6z GFS:



Nearly 11 inches north of Lake Charles, and 9 inches in Kenner.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:37 am to
It floods in some of the burbs, the interstates, but mostly, as usual everywhere, the poor folk.
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29800 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:39 am to
Houston ain't got no Cajun navy baw.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:39 am to
quote:

OT Houston folks says it floods down there pretty easily.




And that it drains well. Someone said the burbs are probably fine. Road floods, but nothing in the houses.

Looks like a few models has this shite heading to us later
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 7:44 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:39 am to
quote:

the poor folk.



This is mostly what I was alluding too.

Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8683 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:40 am to
quote:


You're an ignorant fool




I know we have wishcasters/doomcasters and amateur meteorologists coming out of the woodwork in these threads, but there's not a single expert calling for any conditions which would require the evacuation of a city of millions of people. The only people shocked are... Well, people like the derps in here. And I get that, but that's why people like you don't make those judgment calls.

They evacuate to avoid mass injury and/or loss of life in an area.

I'll say it again, tropical storm force winds and rainfall, in an area not subject to storm surge, will not prompt evacuations.
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 7:41 am
Posted by LordoftheManor
Member since Jul 2006
8371 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:40 am to
Haven't posted yet but here it is. Resident of Galveston, TX and made the decision to leave when models started bringing Harvey back to the coast. Made it from Galveston to Dallas yesterday in 4.5 hours. With voluntary evacuations of surrounding areas north, feel confident in my decision.

Thank you to everyone in this thread. I was able to stay two days ahead of the storm because of your hard work. My wife and I are very grateful.

Hopefully things are okay.
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 7:41 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:41 am to
Bookmarking this post.

Sure hope you are right.
Posted by Uncle JackD
Member since Nov 2007
59561 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:42 am to
I can live with those rain totals... hopefully it holds true.
Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8683 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:42 am to
quote:

Speaking in certainties during an event like this is mindlessly ignorant


Maybe all of Texas should evacuate. We wouldn't want to rely upon experts (who disagree with your absurd evacuation demand).
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46357 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:42 am to
Anyone know the historical rainfall totals in Houston?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:42 am to
I'm not saying evacuate, I was just clarifying that rainfall is the biggest threat.
Posted by Flanders
Member since May 2008
9950 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:43 am to
Damn lord, when did you get married? Congrats
Posted by AutoYes_Clown
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2012
5363 posts
Posted on 8/25/17 at 7:44 am to
Can anyone in Houston give me some intel?

I have some family members headed to the medical center area on Monday. They are staying near the hospitals but right on Brays Bayou. How does that area handle rain?
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