re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

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quote: That's reminiscent of the K "certain death" advisory we all got in our LSU.edu emails 12 years ago Eek. I still remember that (shivers). Do you remember the email about locking your doors and undocumented people in and around BR, plus fully armed national guard for security...

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That was my first semester at LSU. Had been there for two weeks and had to evacuate. My dad was begging me to come back home for the semester. Or at the very least, wanted me to carry a gun in my purse or booksack. In fairness, campus was pretty sketch that semester.

Don't presume 'we'..I'm going on a bender for this one.

New NHC advisory is out

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10:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 24
Location: 25.2°N 94.6°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

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Looking for ways to keep Harvey in check? A lot could depend on the development of that outer band that has been going off all day. It could mix some more stable air into the core or it could end up being a feeder band. Lots of unknowns regarding development, esp. when it comes to banding. The big question moving forward, is this a temporary setup that will be overcome as the core matures and outer rain bands develop or will this be an ongoing issue that will hinder Harvey up until landfall?

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Harvey has been pretty much steady state this evening and has actually deteriorated in presentation (IMO) some over the last several hours. One of the things that appears to be going on is that outer convective band is actually competing with the core, at least the eastern side of the core. Convergence appears to more focused on that outer band (black arrows) and that is limiting convergence into the core. This process is also producing some subsidence that might be introducing low theta-e air (more stable) into the core. This has been limiting convection in the black circle and there haven't been any convective burst on that side of the circulation this evening.

NHC now starting advisories every 2 hours

next NHC advisory is midnight CDT

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Wait suffocated due to mosquitoes? Do explain

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Cows breathe thru their noses and suffocate with mosquitoes blocking those passages. Mosquitoes get that thick.

For those in Houston. My favorite weather guy.

LINK

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The Euro special

Odds: 40 percent. Earlier today we discussed the European model solution for Harvey, which brings the storm into the Texas coast, stalls it, then pulls it back over the Gulf of Mexico and eventually into southwestern Louisiana. Under such a scenario, depending upon the track, much of the Houston area would likely get 5 to 25 inches of rainfall, with the greater totals closer to the coast.

The wandering 59 special

Odds: 35 percent. This solution is favored by many members of the GFS model ensemble, in which Harvey comes inland, and wanders around Corpus Christi, and the rest of the Valley until Sunday or Monday. Then it moves up the Highway 59 corridor, into Houston, over Beaumont, and off into Louisiana. Such a scenario would likely bring 10 to 25 inches of rain to much of the Houston metro area, but totals might not necessarily be greatest along the coast.

Drowning in the Rio special

Odds: 25 percent. Not all of the GFS ensembles pull Harvey back to the north. Some stay in south Texas and peter out. NOAA’s new hurricane model, the HMON, has depicted such a scenario over the last few runs, too. The HMON forecasts that Harvey’s remnants burn themselves out in northern Mexico and southern Texas. Under this scenario Houston might get 5 to 10 inches of rain from Harvey—a lot of rain, but certainly manageable. If this happens, amore than a few people will be mad at meteorologists for having stood in line at grocery stores today, and now what they heck are they going to do with all these Pop Tarts?

Key takeaways

A major hurricane is coming to the Central Texas coast. It will have bad consequences for that region. However the best available data as of Thursday night suggests the immediate impacts on Houston won’t be extreme.
The unanswered question is what happens to Harvey once it reaches the coast. Where will it go, and will it go fast enough? Houston’s rainfall totals over the next five days depend on this, and we just don’t know.
Big-time floods are coming to Texas. Certainly the Corpus Christi area and points immediately north and west of there will get too much rain. Flooding will spread to other parts of Texas too, quite possibly Houston. But right now we can’t say that for certain. As I’ve said, it’s either going to be pretty bad, or really really bad here.

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No intensity change at 10 pm advisory

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Clyde Tipton

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That fricker doesn't move from 7am Saturday until 7 pm Monday