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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/24/17 at 3:59 pm to
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 3:59 pm to


ridge in TX be skrong
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11006 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 3:59 pm to
I still can't fathom AT LEAST a tropical storm sitting over Corpus for THREE FULL DAYS.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48753 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

NHC forecasted wind probabilities suggest Rockport, TX is the most at risk location at the moment. 71% chance of wind speeds 74mph or greater over the next few days. That's the highest city listed in their forecast.


can you post that table or a link

thx
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

I still can't fathom AT LEAST a tropical storm sitting over Corpus for THREE FULL DAYS.




if it stalls just at or offshore it will be devastating. no land to kill the power.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40226 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

negative... don't think the previous cone covered any of Louisiana


Either way this is potentially worse than before.
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40292 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:01 pm to


frick this noise
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
108286 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:02 pm to
Is Corpus still the center of the cone of totality?
Posted by When in Rome
Telegraph Road
Member since Jan 2011
36223 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:02 pm to
this is getting worse and worse.
Posted by Walt OReilly
Poplarville, MS
Member since Oct 2005
124694 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:03 pm to
You'll be fine
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND


In 60 hours it moves 70 miles inland and comes back out where it started.
Posted by Haughton99
Haughton
Member since Feb 2009
6128 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:04 pm to
Headed to Houston tmro for a concert. Should be an interesting trip.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

can you post that table or a link thx


LINK
Posted by OldManRiver
Prairieville, LA
Member since Jan 2005
7562 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:05 pm to
So while reading up on historical hurricanes, found this interesting piece of info:
quote:

Fastest intensification from a tropical depression to a hurricane (1-minute sustained surface winds) – 12 hours
quote:

Harvey 1981 – 35 mph (55 km/h) to 80 mph (130 km/h) – from 1200 UTC September 12 to 0000 UTC September 13

They need to just retire this damn name
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

NHC Atlantic Ops @NHC_Atlantic
Hurricane Warning expanded northward along Texas coast to include the area from Matagorda to Sargent. #Harvey LINK


Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5422 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:05 pm to
Pat Shingleton is just an idiot. He is on the news showing a model run taking this inland in TX and then well into Mexico. Not even showing the models getting this back over water and coming at LA. I understand not wanting to hype something up too much but it seems even more irresponsible to cherry pick the one model (probably their in house model) that shows it going off into Mexico. That's basically telling everyone not to worry because it won't come here. He just says we might get a little rain from feeder bands.

He was doing the same thing yesterday but I let it go because more models were trending west at the time and I felt there was still plenty of time. But now he is doubling down.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

pick the one model (probably their in house model) that shows it going off into Mexico.




this will not be going into mexico.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39822 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:08 pm to
Anyone new to the area between Austin and San Antonio, stay the hell away from the Guadeloupe, the Blanco, and the Pedernales.

They're flash flood traps.
Posted by ParkerTiger7
BR
Member since Jun 2015
70 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:08 pm to
The PEEJ Model
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
23237 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:09 pm to
Par Shingleton has always been an idiot. I liked Mike Graham a lot better when he was on WAFB.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 8/24/17 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

pick the one model (probably their in house model) that shows it going off into Mexico.

this will not be going into mexico.


PJ's prediction guaranteed it wouldn't affect Mexico a week ago.
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