re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

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Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening.
Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm
eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next
12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for
additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with
Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday.
There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to
the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow
shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach
the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC
intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3
through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this
part of the forecast.

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quote:

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3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

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ETA: waiting on new graphic to be posted by NHC

Eye visible on Brownsville long range radar...

Damn there is going to be so little room for error with respect to how far Harvey moves inland, if at all, before it starts to lift to the NE. 60 miles could be the difference in a TS hitting SW LA or a substantial hurricane.

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ETA: waiting on new graphic to be posted by NHC

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You had the right graphic. Their links update automatically.

new NHC cone of uncertainty

shifting East AND they have it strengthening way faster than expected

that ridge has got to be looking like a fricking wall.

NHC forecasted wind probabilities suggest Rockport, TX is the most at risk location at the moment. 71% chance of wind speeds 74mph or greater over the next few days. That's the highest city listed in their forecast.

frick it's got damn near all of Louisiana on guard