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re: Global Supply Shock Exposes the Myth of Energy Independence

Posted on 3/20/26 at 9:52 am to
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138920 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 9:52 am to
My favorite part of this whole ordeal is watching Europe having to deal with their pie in the sky bullshite ideals.
Posted by N2cars
Member since Feb 2008
39639 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:29 am to
K

Posted by MontanaTiger
Montana
Member since Oct 2008
3959 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:32 am to
quote:

But while the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter, it still needs to import heavier crude grades because refineries cannot run only on the lighter crudes from the domestic shale fields. Crude imports account for about three-quarters of U.S. total gross petroleum imports, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Nearly 70% of all U.S. refining capacity runs most efficiently with heavier crude. That is why 90% of crude oil imports into the United States are heavier than U.S.-produced shale crude, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) trade association says.


Question for an oil expert: If most of our oil pulled from the ground is light crude, why are our refineries set up to process heavy crude?
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78404 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:32 am to
Thanks for supporting what I said with a graph.

Not sure the point you are trying to make.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78404 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:33 am to
quote:

why are our refineries set up to process heavy crude?


$$
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
60995 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:38 am to
quote:

But while the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter, it still needs to import heavier crude grades


Isn’t that what Venezuela is for?
Posted by CollegeFBRules
Member since Oct 2008
25726 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Unprecedented, huh?


Actually, yes. We’ve never seen this kind of oil disruption out of the Middle East, not even with the first gulf war. The ONLY reason the price hasn’t already hit $180 is because of the fracking revolution in the US.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29224 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:43 am to
quote:

The speed and intensity of this spike is unprecedented.


And that statement, which I guess depending on the benchmark could very much be true, is causing some folks to be upset because they feel it's an attack on Dear President Trump.

Though it's not. That statement alone isn't an attack on him. It's just a statement. That's all. While at the same time, it appears the U.S. is in a much better position to weather this current storm, in part because of President Trump's initiatives as well in regards to domestic O&G production.

For some, it just has to be all or nothing, though, which unfortunately seems to be what has overtaken politics in America.
Posted by N2cars
Member since Feb 2008
39639 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 10:49 am to
Simply that we are in a better position with domestic production than at any time in our history.
And certainly well-postioned to tolerate exrensl market forces.

In other words, this turmoil won't be nearly as big of "crisis" as some are suggesting.

Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78404 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:00 am to
quote:

Simply that we are in a better position with domestic production than at any time in our history.
And certainly well-postioned to tolerate exrensl market forces.

In other words, this turmoil won't be nearly as big of "crisis" as some are suggesting


I get how you arrive at this opinion. It just ignores the major market change in 2015 to allow the export of crude oil. US oil is traded on a global market which has helped it expand, however it comes at the price of watching our oil go offshore. Similar as to why we saw the spike in 2022.

This disruption is far worse than the disruption on 2022.

This post was edited on 3/20/26 at 11:01 am
Posted by N2cars
Member since Feb 2008
39639 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:12 am to
And I get your point re heavy crude and refining capacity.


OK, my opinion is oil never hits (at closing) even 170, which adjuster for inflammation, is pretty close to the $145 mentioned in the article.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78404 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:19 am to
I think 145 is possible. That price probably tanks the economy and a recession hits before getting too far beyond.

The longterm effects are much more cloudy. And even hormuz opening now the world has lost a month of crude movements through the straight. Over half a billion of crude not to mention refined products.

Posted by AUin02
Member since Jan 2012
4575 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:30 am to
Because regulation has so strangled refinery construction and upgrades that the last major refinery built in the US was 50 years ago.
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
139434 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:36 am to
Better ger on board the trump train then
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
78404 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:37 am to
Refining capacity peaked in 2020. Under normal circumstances there is too much refining capacity as demand in the US has fallen.
Posted by armytiger96
Member since Sep 2007
2556 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:47 am to
quote:

So...yeah, for some of us, that article may be "Well....I already knew that." But it appears not everyone on here has viewed Energy Independence in the terms you and I may.


Well the problem is you used the "shock and awe" title of "exposes myth" from the article and posted quotes from article without any explanation of your intent behind the article or the post.

Of course you have to go all the way to the bottom of the article to get a true explanation. I will give you credit for putting this text in bold.

A simple change of your title or explanation changes how the article and your post is received by others. A change in title or a simple explanation such as "Article to explain why we are experiencing high prices at the pump domestically despite Energy Independence" would likely be better received.
Posted by N2cars
Member since Feb 2008
39639 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:47 am to
I agree with respect to a "world impact", I dont think this situation will push the US into a domestic recession.





And to those mentioning CA fuel prices, that is largely California's own fault
Posted by back9Tiger
Island Coconut Salesman
Member since Nov 2005
17960 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:47 am to
quote:

while the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter, it still needs to import heavier crude grades


Blame politicians over the years that have leveraged everything the US did away from the US, which is a HUGE national security problem.

There should have been a renaissance of lighter crude units and new plants built once fracking innovation started to really hit. There is no reason we should be in some of the positions we are in, but politicians sold the US to the highest bidder.

Same goes for manufacturing, ship building and a number of other verticals.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29224 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 11:54 am to
quote:

Well the problem is you used the "shock and awe" title of "exposes myth" from the article and posted quotes from article without any explanation of your intent behind the article or the post.

Of course you have to go all the way to the bottom of the article to get a true explanation. I will give you credit for putting this text in bold.


All I did was copy and paste from the article. Same title and same words in the piece. Simple as that.

But yes, I did bold parts that I thought were key and worth reading, as I typically do.
Posted by armytiger96
Member since Sep 2007
2556 posts
Posted on 3/20/26 at 3:51 pm to
Because they were retooled for sour crude when we ran out of Peak Oil in the 1980's.

The resurgence of sweet crude was in 2010 when hydraulic fracturing gave us access to shale oil.

Here's Google AI input:

quote:

4 Why U.S. oil refiners could be the big winners in Venezuela — even ... No, U.S. refineries were not always tooled for sour (high-sulfur) crude. While many are now "complex" refineries designed for heavy/sour crude, this was primarily a strategic shift, particularly during the 1980s and 1990s, to process cheaper, heavier foreign oil as domestic, lighter, and sweeter crude production declined. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) +2


Key Historical Context:

Initial Design: Historically, many U.S. refineries were equipped for lighter, sweeter crude. Major investment in upgrades (such as cokers and hydrocrackers) was made over the last few decades to process heavier, sourer feedstock from countries like Venezuela and Mexico.

The Shift:

The push to upgrade refineries to handle heavy/sour crude intensified in the 1980s and 1990s to take advantage of lower prices for these grades. Shale Boom Contradiction: The recent, dramatic increase in U.S. shale oil production has created a mismatch. The U.S. produces large volumes of light, sweet crude, but much of its refinery capacity is still geared toward heavy, sour oil.

Why They Didn't Revert:

Retrofitting refineries to switch back from heavy to light crudes is expensive and economically undesirable because heavy sour crude still offers higher margins for these specialized, high-conversion refineries.

American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers +5 Roughly 70% of U.S. refining capacity, particularly on the Gulf Coast, is currently designed to process heavier, high-sulfur crudes.




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