re: Friday weather thread. Tornado watches everywhere, warnings, too

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The SPC is already putting out hints of something for the middle of next week

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Waayyy early obviously, but CAPE certainly looks sus in that timeframe

Latest SPC update expanded the Enhanced and the Slight area a bit.



Pretty significant tornado probabilities with this one.

I believe the southern mode has a chance to over perform and stretch beyond the current Enhanced area. It is a question of how far south storms can form along and ahead of the front. Given a decent environment, any storms that form on the tail end of that line will have a chance to cause problems. As usual, don't put too much faith into the borders of the colors on that map.

NE AR and Memphis area folks, start preparing for a significant severe threat beginning around the afternoon rush hour tomorrow. Might not be a terrible idea to knock off at lunch if you can. Being in traffic in that shite won't be fun, whether it is severe or not.

Updated OP:

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.SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South...

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@ReedTimmerAccu

I am very concerned about the overall pattern for tornado outbreaks this early spring

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Titty milk futures to the moon

Extreme northern Louisiana is in a sneaky bad spot for this setup:

Around 3pm tomorrow:


The HRRR has been consistent on firing those tail-end storms. If they happen they will have a pretty good environment for a couple hours. Fortunately, it won't be an extended ordeal as the front will pass pretty quickly, carrying the storms with it.

Just a heads up, as storms forming at the end of what will become that line will have a chance to be rough. Soundings show a decent hail threat with them, as well.

Ominous wording for the southern moderate risk area (NE Arkansas, western Tennessee vicinity) from SPC this morning:

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...Lower MS Valley...

A secondary corridor of concentrated convection is expected to
evolve ahead of the front across the lower MS Valley. Early-day
mid-level speed max that races across northern OK into MO will allow
the front to surge into southern MO, arcing across the Arklatex by
late afternoon. Surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s
across northeast TX/western LA early this morning. This air mass
will easily advance across AR into western KY prior to convective
initiation. As a result, SBCAPE should be on the order of 2000 J/kg
with very strong sfc-6km shear and low-level SRH. Any supercells
that evolve within this air mass will do so within an environment
that favors long-lived updrafts and strong tornadoes. Upscale growth
into a QLCS is expected during the latter half of the period. Severe
threat should spread east across the northern Gulf States Friday
night.

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My current job is basically Bill Paxton in that movie

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You got any YouTube tornado videos out there? You buds with Reed Timmer who is played by Phillip Seymour Hoffman in that movie.

NWS decided to post this after one just murdered 6 innocent people in a school shooting

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National Weather Service
@NWS
To promote justice, equality, and equity for the transgender community, the National Weather Service family champions and stands alongside our transgender employees on this day and every day! #TransDayOfVisibility

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https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS/status/1641774592699035648

Love our government offices making clearly divisive political stances.