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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:26 pm to
Posted by DLauw
SWLA
Member since Sep 2011
6194 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:26 pm to
So glad I was finally able to move away.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5907 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

and how they stalled out.


Fortunately this one seems like it will move through quick? Hopefully given the short time frame any development will be compact and move through quick.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12707 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

You wish casted Ida with that tree


Ida got rid of all my trees thankfully.

Yard is still a little wet, but I am elevated about 3 feet above ground level.

So barring a massive failure in the South Lafourche levee system I should be good even if water floods the yard.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75157 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

Yeah but a lot of developments have gone up in 8 years changing drainage.

I've been giving this reality a lot of thought lately.

A couple weeks or so ago parts of Connecticut saw catastrophic flooding comparable to their floods of record. I was watching a few videos and reading some posts on X. Quite a few people were saying that they were seeing areas flood that had never flooded before. When you started really looking at the areas on the videos, they were mostly full of new developments, with plenty of commercial development. Every building or home that goes up and every parking lot that is laid down changes how water travels.

I started to understand that with areas that have seen large development over the years you can't really compare floods like that. Everything we do, or don't do in regards to maintenance of drainages and such, has an impact. Drawing comparison between what floods today and what flooded even just 15-20 years ago isn't of much use.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 12:33 pm
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:39 pm to
Welp, there it is.....Euro run....


Posted by CoonassatTEXAS
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2005
1264 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:39 pm to
only one model, gefs now showing heaving flooding as steering falls apart once inland

recon in the air, so we should know a lot
more later today
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 12:42 pm
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
60932 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:40 pm to
TITS OUT
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182394 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Welp, there it is.....Euro run....


Cat 2 into Vermillion Bay?
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50761 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:43 pm to
Welp, that’s pretty close to the GFS and much stronger than the previous run.


I’ll refrain from speculating what could happen during a hurricane, though. Wouldn’t want to “wishcast”.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:46 pm to
Yikes
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:47 pm to


Less than 4 days. If these runs are consistent tomorrow gonna be a shite show at stores tomorrow here in Louisiana
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5907 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:47 pm to
I would say this might catch people by surprise tonight, but I thinj everyone still living south of I-10 posts in this thread.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:48 pm to
Well hell that looks pretty awful for SELA
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:52 pm to
Whelp folks, it appears it is time to break out the bingo cards and start thawing the Breast milk
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:53 pm to
Will we see a PTC Advisory with a cone later today?
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30517 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:53 pm to
Ugh
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12707 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

start thawing the Breast milk


Why would you thaw it?

Shouldn’t you be freezing it so it lasts longer?
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
42365 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:56 pm to
Consensus in the models....

Tonight we will know more once the hurricane hunter data is put in.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:56 pm to
Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet
have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
on its western side. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form
during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally
northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional
strengthening possible by the middle of this week.

Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana
coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for portions of the coast of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon or
tonight, with additional watches possible along the coast of Texas
and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. An Air-Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in route to to investigate
the system this afternoon. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
5179 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:56 pm to
Guess I'll start preparing now. Was kinda hoping it would end up weaker by landfall.
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