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1
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:51 pm to Duke
10 PM center track line is actually over St. George and west of Denham Springs
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:52 pm to chicano12
I’m so confused. Lol. I assume there will be another move East?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:52 pm to Duke
They just showed the latest GFS and Euro models. They’re almost identical and are exactly what the latest advisory is. Track seems pretty set at this time.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:53 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Still needs more acronyms.
Those TCP reports better be done
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:53 pm to rds dc
Did the track move at all at 10?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:53 pm to Duke
quote:
If you knew the panties that dropped when I start talking about adiabatic expansion.
…Reading this half drunk to the wife (no pics) for laughs died laughing at my pronunciation of adiabatic. She is a chemical engineer and I had a lot more fun in college
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:53 pm to Tigercowboy
quote:
I got a Doctorate in H studies.
But do you include “PhD” in your title? Welder69 will want to meet you in the hurricane slap fight thread, if so.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:53 pm to PTLSU
quote:
Track seems pretty set at this time.
I was just about to ask this. We are less than 24 hours from landfall. Does that mean the track is pretty much set?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:53 pm to lsugolfredman
Where tf are you looking?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:54 pm to CleanSlate
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:57 pm to LSUbasketballfan
quote:
Track going through Baton Rouge shifted about 2 miles west.
Good point LSUbasketballfan.
The landfall point forecast did not move but the turn to the NNE (closer to BR) is now forecast to be a little more to the left (west).
Possible center track through BR is now between Highland and Siegen into Old Jefferson and Woodlawn then just west of Denham Springs (River Run / Frenchtown area)
But note that the possible track line is a straight line between the two forecast points whereas the actual track will be curved to some extent.
ETA - see map in post above mine (thanks lsugolfredman)
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:57 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I'm not buying a cat 1 staying a TS all rhe way to northern Miss
One thing I've noticed over the years is their insistence on maintaining a hurricanes' strength way too far inland.
I say this as someone who lives 200 miles from the coast.
Almost always, no matter the strength, tropical systems quickly lose intensity immediately when the eye crosses the shoreline. And the forecasts never detail this
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:57 pm to lsugolfredman
Breaux Bridge is almost out of the cone. Hallelujah.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:57 pm to lsugolfredman
Earlier today that line was over my house then it moved to about 6 miles to the east and now it moved back west 3 miles. This track moving shot is like watching an LSU football game. Just never know what will happen.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:58 pm to tigafan4life
quote:
Earlier today that line was over my house then it moved to about 6 miles to the east and now it moved back west 3 miles.
It moved 9 miles total all day. I'd take that to mean it's probably coming pretty fricking close to ya.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:59 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK AT FRANCINE: Francine is a minimal hurricane tonight with winds of 75 mph. The center is about 295 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, and it is moving northeast at 10 mph.
Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant strengthening seems likely through tomorrow morning while the system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear conditions.
The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical models show much less intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing category 2 strength tomorrow morning.
A notable increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland.
Francine should be near the Louisiana coast by late tomorrow afternoon with winds of 90 mph. The circulation will move up the I-55 corridor in Mississippi tomorrow night and Thursday; Alabama will be on the wet/unsettled side of the system.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Alabama Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 2-4 feet is forecast for the Gulf Coast of Mobile and Baldwin counties, and Mobile Bay as well.
More about the impact for Alabama tomorrow night and Thursday:
*Gradient winds could gust as high as 50 mph along the Alabama Gulf Coast tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night; gusts to 35 mph are possible for the northern half of the state on Thursday.
*Rain amounts over Mobile and Baldwin counties will be in the 2-4 inch range, with amounts between 1-3 inches for the rest of the state. Heavier totals will likely be over the western counties.
*A few brief, isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out across the state; SPC has defined a "slight risk" (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for Mobile and Baldwin counties tomorrow and tomorrow night, and most of the state (with the exception of the northeast counties) is in a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) during the day Thursday.
*The weather will improve along the Gulf Coast during the day Thursday as Francine moves northward. However, a high rip current danger will be in place across the Central Gulf Coast through Friday.
*See the maps attached to this post for impact to other parts of the Deep South.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The remnant circulation of Francine will likely stall northwest of Alabama, and this means some risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis Friday through Sunday. This won't be a continuous rain, and the sun will be out at times, but just understand some rain is likely at times. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
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Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:00 pm to rds dc
Why did it move 4 miles back west?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:00 pm to Duke
I’m just mad that the lights gonna be out for a couple days. 
My kids high school said there I’ll do virtual school. Like how with no electricity?
My kids high school said there I’ll do virtual school. Like how with no electricity? Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:00 pm to lsugolfredman
Could you post the link to that site?
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